Big Bump Down in UI Claims and Up in ADP

July 5th, 2012 at 8:50 am

But don’t get too excited re an upside surprise in tomorrow’s job’s report behind this 14K bump down in UI claims.  First, they’re noisy.  The more reliable 4-week moving average remains elevated.  Second, this report reflects last week, while the BLS jobs report reflects the middle week of June.

Also suggestive of an upside print tomorrow is today’s ADP, which spiked 176K for private sector payrolls in June.  But be forewarned: you don’t want to extrapolate on a monthly basis from either ADP or UI claims to the more important BLS survey.  Re that release, the forecast for tomorrow is 100K for payroll jobs, nothing to pop champagne over.  More to come…

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