Big Bump Down in UI Claims and Up in ADP
Jul 05, 2012 at 8:50 am
But don’t get too excited re an upside surprise in tomorrow’s job’s report behind this 14K bump down in UI claims. First, they’re noisy. The more reliable 4-week moving average remains elevated. Second, this report reflects last week, while the BLS jobs report reflects the middle week of June.
Also suggestive of an upside print tomorrow is today’s ADP, which spiked 176K for private sector payrolls in June. But be forewarned: you don’t want to extrapolate on a monthly basis from either ADP or UI claims to the more important BLS survey. Re that release, the forecast for tomorrow is 100K for payroll jobs, nothing to pop champagne over. More to come…
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About
Jared Bernstein’s areas of expertise include federal and state economic and fiscal policies, income inequality and mobility, trends in employment and earnings, international comparisons, and the analysis of financial and housing markets.
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