Archive for the ‘Economic Growth’ Category

Data Note: There’s a reason we here at OTE often focus on year-over-year changes

May 25th, 2015

There’s been a significant disturbance in the force for those of us who pay attention to government economic data releases, specifically regarding GDP. A number of commentators, including CNBC’s Steve Liesman, have noted a negative pattern regarding first quarter GDP data. That is, as this San Francisco Fed note shows (see Figure 2), in the… Read more

Super Models

May 21st, 2015

Sorry, nothing prurient. Just a quick observation and reading/listening assignments for serious OTE’ers on some material that I will return to shortly with the necessary time and attention. Over the past few days, in three separate (though intimately connected) debates in which I take part, I’ve come across writers emphasizing the critical importance of getting… Read more

How we calculate US job losses from currency management

May 11th, 2015

[This post was written jointly with Ben Spielberg] In this PostEverything piece, Bernstein and Baker quote estimates of jobs lost in the U.S. due to higher trade deficits induced by currency management. In this memo, we explain how we derived the numbers cited in that piece. The analysis is “back-of-the-envelope” and is thus a rough… Read more

Q1 GDP up only 0.2%. Don’t freak out…but don’t chill out either.

April 29th, 2015

I’m about to start a full day meeting (my third this week…unfair to pajama bloggers!) so no time to do justice to this rich–though preliminary in terms of data–report. The “don’t-freak-out” part relates to a) the fact that advanced data are subject to substantial revisions, b) first quarter seasonal factors may be depressing the number… Read more

Gas prices, the dollar, and a warning about the future trade deficit

April 24th, 2015

I enjoyed Neil Irwin’s recent piece of the dynamics between the strong dollar and cheap gas in the US macroeconomy. The issues Neil raises pose both an interesting question and a worrisome caveat. Neil writes that “The giant question for the economy in 2015 was which of these forces [strong $ vs. cheap gas] would prove more… Read more