Archive for the ‘Economic Growth’ Category

Middle Class Economics: Josh Barro nails some critical points

February 26th, 2015

Josh Barro does an excellent job describing many of the key points about the challenges of crafting what politicians are calling “middle-class economics.” As I see it, they’re talking about policies that reconnect overall economic growth and the prosperity of the middle class. Though median household incomes have been rising in recent years, as best… Read more

Systematically over-predicting interest rates…why and what does that portend?

February 23rd, 2015

Over at the Upshot, but here’s the key figure which tells a heckuva story. Typically, forecasts that continuously err on one side versus more random error suggest there’s a structural change in the economy that’s left out of the model.   Plus, you gotta love the Queen Elizabeth anecdote and picture. Not to be rude,… Read more

Read this now: a trenchant oped by Greek finance minister Varoufakis

February 16th, 2015

To me it reads like the correct dosage of mind and heart and as such comes across as both a rational and heartfelt approach to the least harmful/most potentially helpful way forward in resolving the debt/fiscal crisis. I guess some clever austerian could argue that the claim “I’m not using game theory” would fit quite neatly… Read more

2014q4 GDP: On trend if you measure it “right” with no inflationary pressures in sight.

January 30th, 2015

Real GDP grew 2.6% in Q4 last year, slightly below expectations for 3% and slower than the past two quarters which averaged 4.8%. But while that slower pace–at least in today’s advanced report; we’ll see two updates based on more complete data in coming weeks–may cause some angst to some, OTEers know better. The annualized… Read more

Fed in an interesting zone: strong growth, weak inflation

January 28th, 2015

You’re hanging out at a party with your spouse. He’s a charming guy, life of the party, but he’s been known to get embarrassingly drunk and start breaking things. You watch him closely, observing that he’s drinking heavily as usual and you’re getting ready to shove in the car before things get ugly. But weirdly, they don’t…. Read more