As expected, real GDP for Q1 came in at a suckingly low 0.5%, SAAR. In this case, “SAAR”– seasonally adjusted at an annualized rate”– is important. That’s because there’s some concern with the seasonal adjusters, which some argue are biasing Q1 down and Q2 up. Also, annualized quarterly changes tend to jump around. So a… Read more
Thanks to the really engaging hosts and great production, this conversation turned out to be a lot more fun and interesting than is often the case, I thought. Give it a look, and make your Hunger-Games-reading tween check it out too!
In economic policy, new findings can sometimes break through the noise based on their timing, relevance, and importantly, who finds the findings. For example, when the President’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) publishes highly relevant results on a very hot topic in the annual Economic Report of the President (ERP), it matters. This year’s ERP, out… Read more
Many economists accept the concept of “hysteresis,” which sounds like, and is, a disease that occurs when persistent periods of weak demand chip away at what I call the “big two” supply-side variables: labor supply and productivity. The figure below reveals the serious consequences of our latest bout with hysteresis. In today’s WaPo, I tout… Read more
I forgot to post this here yesterday, as I think OTE’ers would quite like it, within a confidence interval, of course. Charles Manski, an economist/econometrician who’s thought deeply about the importance of accounting for errors in economic data and forecasts, and who also miraculously speaks fairly plainly about it, agreed to answer some questions I… Read more