Archive for the ‘Economic Growth’ Category

Will the funds rate have time to get back to “normal” (wherever that is) before the next recession?

August 24th, 2016

I’ve got  a piece up at WaPo riffing off of this new paper by Fed economist David Reifschneider (DR). I wanted to add an interesting figure here that I couldn’t jam in the WaPo post. Some of the data in the figure comes from DR’s table 1 showing the number of basis points (hundredths of a percent, so… Read more

When fiscal policy lags, the one-two fiscal/monetary punch doesn’t land

August 15th, 2016

Two recent pieces looked at where we are in this recovery and why, seven years into an expansion, we’re still not at full employment. One is by my main man Josh Bivens from the Economic Policy Institute and the other is by David Mericle and Avisha Thakkar from Goldman Sachs (GS) research (sorry; no link to that one)…. Read more

That second quarter GDP report: should we be worried?

August 1st, 2016

I didn’t much like that GDP report from last Friday, showing that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.2% in the second quarter. OTEers know my methods: I prefer to smooth out the quarterly noise by looking at year-over-year trends. However, as the figure below shows, that doesn’t help so much. In fact,… Read more

Share buybacks, our investment deficit, and bad tax ideas

July 13th, 2016

A quick note with more pictures than words. –Investment, both private business investment and public investment (infrastructure), have been weak of late. –In fact, as a share of GDP, business investment has consistently hit lower peaks over the last few business cycles. –Yet we know corporate profitability is high and the cost of capital is… Read more