Archive for the ‘Economic Growth’ Category

The Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment: What We Don’t Know Can Hurt Us

July 28th, 2014

To assert that economists are having trouble figuring out the relationship between inflation and unemployment is like saying chefs can’t figure out what to do with salt and pepper.  It’s that fundamental.  Yet, we’re befuddled, and that has powerful policy implications. For example, a prominent macro economist recently suggested to me that we must have… Read more

Dr. John, Ph.D. on the Spate of Current Economic Indicators: “Refried Confusion is Making Itself Clear”

July 2nd, 2014

I often cite the great New Orleans pianist/composer at moments like this, when the economic data are jumping around this way and that. Most analysts, myself included, agreed that first quarter GDP was a large outlier, but not to put too fine a point on it, that -2.9% was just a crap number (here’s my… Read more

A Close Shave with Occam’s Razor

June 30th, 2014

Dean Baker goes on a vicious—even for him!—tear in response to Robert Samuelson’s column this morning on the state of economics knowledge about the business cycle.  Dean’s take down is definitely worth a read, as I too have been struck by the increasingly complex explanations offered for a sequence of economic events that seems fairly… Read more