Archive for the ‘Economic Growth’ Category

Quick GDP point re 2016q1

April 28th, 2016

As expected, real GDP for Q1 came in at a suckingly low 0.5%, SAAR. In this case, “SAAR”– seasonally adjusted at an annualized rate”– is important. That’s because there’s some concern with the seasonal adjusters, which some argue are biasing Q1 down and Q2 up. Also, annualized quarterly changes tend to jump around. So a… Read more

Important new findings on inflation and unemployment from the new ERP

February 22nd, 2016

In economic policy, new findings can sometimes break through the noise based on their timing, relevance, and importantly, who finds the findings. For example, when the President’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) publishes highly relevant results on a very hot topic in the annual Economic Report of the President (ERP), it matters. This year’s ERP, out… Read more

The economy’s speed limit is a policy variable

February 22nd, 2016

Many economists accept the concept of “hysteresis,” which sounds like, and is, a disease that occurs when persistent periods of weak demand chip away at what I call the “big two” supply-side variables: labor supply and productivity. The figure below reveals the serious consequences of our latest bout with hysteresis. In today’s WaPo, I tout… Read more

Charles Manski on the importance of accounting for policy uncertainty

February 20th, 2016

I forgot to post this here yesterday, as I think OTE’ers would quite like it, within a confidence interval, of course. Charles Manski, an economist/econometrician who’s thought deeply about the importance of accounting for errors in economic data and forecasts, and who also miraculously speaks fairly plainly about it, agreed to answer some questions I… Read more