Over at the WaPo, I speak to the existence of an FEPM. Hard to prove–I think you’d probably need to track individual firms over time–but I’ll bet it’s operative. I’ll note without comment that according to a BLS release this AM, productivity fell 3% in the first quarter. Now, that didn’t happen–noisy quarterly data. But… Read more
Well, there’s the stock market and there’s the real economy. They’re related but they’re not the same thing. Here’s why. To be clear, nobody knows when the next recession will hit, so I’m decidedly not saying all clear, happy-dappy! To the contrary, I strongly urge us to be ready for the worst.
…there are lots of ways in which such cheap energy is less than a blessing for the economy, not to mention the environment. Over at WaPo.
[This post is longer than usual. But then, understanding the productivity slowdown is more important than usual. Punchline: while some of the slowdown can be attributed to mismeasurement, meaning the slowdown isn’t as bad as it looks, I suspect part of it has to do with capital misallocated to unproductive sectors. Thanks to Dean Baker… Read more
A commenter, after gazing at these figures, asks: how much influence do presidents really have over the economy anyway? I dove deeply into this here, riffing off of an academic paper comparing economic outcomes between terms when D’s or R’s controlled the White House. The economy grows faster under Democrats, which is good to know,… Read more