Archive for the ‘Economic Growth’ Category

That second quarter GDP report: should we be worried?

August 1st, 2016

I didn’t much like that GDP report from last Friday, showing that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.2% in the second quarter. OTEers know my methods: I prefer to smooth out the quarterly noise by looking at year-over-year trends. However, as the figure below shows, that doesn’t help so much. In fact,… Read more

Share buybacks, our investment deficit, and bad tax ideas

July 13th, 2016

A quick note with more pictures than words. –Investment, both private business investment and public investment (infrastructure), have been weak of late. –In fact, as a share of GDP, business investment has consistently hit lower peaks over the last few business cycles. –Yet we know corporate profitability is high and the cost of capital is… Read more

References/Links to stuff you might like: recession, race, and trade

July 11th, 2016

First, the NYT’s Room for Debate series asks the important question: Are we ready for the next recession? As OTE regulars know, I say “no,” based on monetary policy, fiscal policy, and politics (otherwise, we’re fine…). I enjoyed other entries that stressed the importance of direct job creation programs, which make a lot of sense, especially… Read more

Bond yields are just so damn low…what is that telling us?

July 6th, 2016

I pour the morning cup of mud, schlep out to the stoop to get my paper, and open my WSJ to learn that the yield curve is awfully flat (i.e., the difference between the interest rates of bonds of different maturities is low). In fact, the yield on the 10-yr–1.367% yesterday–is the lowest on record…. Read more