Given that the Congressional Budget Office kindly provides an historical series of both potential GDP and the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), aka the lowest unemployment rate they judge to be consistent with stable inflation, we can compare those to the actual outcomes and measure slack over the ages. That is, define every quarter that… Read more
Here’s a podcast wherein I discuss many things economic–and I even slip in a highly topical sports analogy.
I come away from Bin Appelbaum’s (fine) piece in today’s NYT scratching the old head. The article takes up an issue on which I’ve frequently focused (before the topic was fashionable, if I may snarkily add): the extent to which the protracted downturn has damaged future growth rates. It has been five years since the… Read more
As predicted, there’s a fair bit of kvelling over the fact that payrolls last month finally recovered the almost nine million jobs lost in the GR (great recession). The figure below, by my CBPP colleague Chad Stone, shows the comeback, but more important from the perspective of this post, the pronounced difference in length it… Read more
This morning I made the point that the job market had settled into a decent trend, but prematurely, i.e., prior to making up the ground lost, or if you prefer (and I do), prior to achieving full employment. Here’s a picture of the stability to which I’m referring. It shows the annual percent change in… Read more