With most economic variables, I think we make too big a deal about crossing zero on the number line. I don’t feel great if real GDP’s growing at 0.2% and horrified if it’s at -0.2%. Deflation with price growth at -0.5% isn’t terribly worse than disinflation with price growth at +0.5%. But with nominal interest… Read more
[This post was written jointly with Ben Spielberg] Most state governors want to bring more businesses and employment to their states and maintain sustainable budgets. An important new paper from two of our colleagues, Michael Mazerov and Mike Leachman (M&L), provides a new and important insight in this regard: incentives in the form of tax… Read more
Over at the WaPo, I speak to the existence of an FEPM. Hard to prove–I think you’d probably need to track individual firms over time–but I’ll bet it’s operative. I’ll note without comment that according to a BLS release this AM, productivity fell 3% in the first quarter. Now, that didn’t happen–noisy quarterly data. But… Read more
Well, there’s the stock market and there’s the real economy. They’re related but they’re not the same thing. Here’s why. To be clear, nobody knows when the next recession will hit, so I’m decidedly not saying all clear, happy-dappy! To the contrary, I strongly urge us to be ready for the worst.
…there are lots of ways in which such cheap energy is less than a blessing for the economy, not to mention the environment. Over at WaPo.