As Josh Barro reminded us the other day, most Americans—57%–still think the economy is in recession. It’s not, as per the official scorekeepers. The National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee (sounds like a lonely heart club for nerds) tells us that the recession officially ended in June 2009. And at least in… Read more
If I’m a doctor trying to take your temperature and it becomes clear to me that the thermometer isn’t working quite right, I’d better stop depending on that thermometer, right? To quote Yenta, “Of course right!” That’s what the Fed’s Open Market Committee announced today, vis-à-vis a 6.5% unemployment rate as a guide post for… Read more
I’m confident one can trust the Yellen-led Fed to largely tune out the building chorus telling them to pre-emptively tighten because somewhere, somehow, there’s some inflation out there. That doesn’t mean they’re all inflation doves—remember, Yellen was bugging Greenspan to tighten in the mid-1990s (thankfully, he didn’t take her advice as the economy hit full… Read more
I enjoyed the framing in Evan Soltas’ analysis on the debate over how much slack there is in the US economy. The “slackers” think we’re still facing sizable output gaps in GDP and jobs. The “quitters” think the job market is tightening up (based in part on recent movements in quit rates—more on that in… Read more
Just a quick slide from a presentation I’m giving tomorrow…kinda speaks for itself, I think.