Two recent pieces looked at where we are in this recovery and why, seven years into an expansion, we’re still not at full employment. One is by my main man Josh Bivens from the Economic Policy Institute and the other is by David Mericle and Avisha Thakkar from Goldman Sachs (GS) research (sorry; no link to that one)…. Read more
I suspect OTE’ers will like this one, over at WaPo. The book I cite, by Bakija et al, is also worth a close look. I get that we’re not exactly living in Factville these days, but I won’t let that stop me!
I didn’t much like that GDP report from last Friday, showing that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.2% in the second quarter. OTEers know my methods: I prefer to smooth out the quarterly noise by looking at year-over-year trends. However, as the figure below shows, that doesn’t help so much. In fact,… Read more
A quick note with more pictures than words. –Investment, both private business investment and public investment (infrastructure), have been weak of late. –In fact, as a share of GDP, business investment has consistently hit lower peaks over the last few business cycles. –Yet we know corporate profitability is high and the cost of capital is… Read more
First, the NYT’s Room for Debate series asks the important question: Are we ready for the next recession? As OTE regulars know, I say “no,” based on monetary policy, fiscal policy, and politics (otherwise, we’re fine…). I enjoyed other entries that stressed the importance of direct job creation programs, which make a lot of sense, especially… Read more