Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category

Slack, inflation, and the Fed

February 15th, 2017

What with Chair Yellen testifying in Congress over the last couple of days, I’ve been trying to dig into the case for forthcoming Fed rate hikes. Clearly, there is more price pressure in the system than in recent months, but there are also these factors to consider: –The data-driven case for rate hikes is far… Read more

Paul Krugman goes all “crowd out” on us. Is he right?

January 9th, 2017

Progressives’ Keynesian economist in chief, Paul Krugman, has been second to none in calling out policymakers’ focus on reducing budget deficits when economies were still weak (also known as “austerity”). Given that record, his oped in today’s NYT may surprise some readers. He argued that, as the economy closes in on full employment, fiscal budget… Read more

The elusive u*

December 19th, 2016

‘u*’ is econo-shorthand for the so-called “natural rate” of unemployment, or the lowest unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation. The problem is, as I explore over at WaPo today, it’s an unobserved variable that is increasingly hard to pin down. That makes it an…um…imperfect yardstick for Fed policy.

Kudlow for CEA?

December 16th, 2016

A few people have asked me about the rumored pick of CNBC host Larry Kudlow to head the Council of Economic Advisers in the incoming Trump administration (I’m never sure if that’s supposed to be an ‘e’ or an ‘o’ in Advis_rs; the WaPo piece just cited has ‘o’ in the headline and ‘e’ in… Read more