Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category

Inflation, earnings, and spending: a review of recent trends

May 4th, 2017

I need a serious break from the ugliness of DC health-care politics, so let’s talk about three interesting and related economic questions: inflation, labor demand, and consumer spending. First, why does inflation continue to respond so weakly, if at all, to the tightening job market? The traditional response is “because the Phillips curve (the relationship… Read more

Dynamic scoring, interest rates, and “crowd out”

April 25th, 2017

I’ve got a piece over at the WaPo on why, when Treasury Sec’y Mnuchin says that Trump’s tax plan–which I suspect does not exist yet outside of some broad principles–“will pay for itself,” you should…um…disbelieve him. Such claims abuse “dynamic scoring,” the process by which analysts estimate macroeconomic feedback effects from tax cuts. I provide a… Read more

My favorite remaining institutions: the justice system and the Fed

March 16th, 2017

There are at least two American institutions that remain venerable, albeit vulnerable: the justice system and the Federal Reserve. On my way in this morning, I learned some details about the Hawaiian judge’s rejection of President Trump’s travel ban v2.0. While team Trump believed they’d removed the problematic language from their first run at this… Read more