Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category

The dollar’s makin’ me holler, and other tales of the macro muddle

August 17th, 2016

Old gold bugs know the old plaint, “gold, gold, you’re makin’ me old.” Well, today’s version is “dollar, dollar, you’re makin’ me holler!” I’ll be brief—I’ve got something longer on this coming out soon—but I’ve been struck by both the recent jigs and jags in the dollar and other currencies. A central reason for those… Read more

When fiscal policy lags, the one-two fiscal/monetary punch doesn’t land

August 15th, 2016

Two recent pieces looked at where we are in this recovery and why, seven years into an expansion, we’re still not at full employment. One is by my main man Josh Bivens from the Economic Policy Institute and the other is by David Mericle and Avisha Thakkar from Goldman Sachs (GS) research (sorry; no link to that one)…. Read more

That second quarter GDP report: should we be worried?

August 1st, 2016

I didn’t much like that GDP report from last Friday, showing that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.2% in the second quarter. OTEers know my methods: I prefer to smooth out the quarterly noise by looking at year-over-year trends. However, as the figure below shows, that doesn’t help so much. In fact,… Read more

Bond yields are just so damn low…what is that telling us?

July 6th, 2016

I pour the morning cup of mud, schlep out to the stoop to get my paper, and open my WSJ to learn that the yield curve is awfully flat (i.e., the difference between the interest rates of bonds of different maturities is low). In fact, the yield on the 10-yr–1.367% yesterday–is the lowest on record…. Read more