Archive for the ‘Financial Markets’ Category

Systematically over-predicting interest rates…why and what does that portend?

February 23rd, 2015

Over at the Upshot, but here’s the key figure which tells a heckuva story. Typically, forecasts that continuously err on one side versus more random error suggest there’s a structural change in the economy that’s left out of the model.   Plus, you gotta love the Queen Elizabeth anecdote and picture. Not to be rude,… Read more

A few different articles that caught the eye in recent days…

February 11th, 2015

–Teresa Tritch, with characteristic efficiency, nails the essentials of the building Greek/German showdown, emphasizing the critical point that this isn’t a simple story of virtuous lenders and profligate borrowers. Both sides swam in de-Nile since Greece entered the eurozone, and now that the implosion has occurred, the Greeks cannot be the only ones to shoulder… Read more

Josh Bivens for the Win: The Fed Interest Rate Liftoff is the New Deficit Reduction

January 14th, 2015

Orange may be the new black, but in my world raising the federal funds rate is the new deficit reduction. Let me explain. I keep bumping into arguments about why, despite pressures from wages or prices, either in real life or in expectations, the Fed should pre-emptively raise the interest rate it controls in order… Read more