Well, there’s the stock market and there’s the real economy. They’re related but they’re not the same thing. Here’s why. To be clear, nobody knows when the next recession will hit, so I’m decidedly not saying all clear, happy-dappy! To the contrary, I strongly urge us to be ready for the worst.
A commenter, after gazing at these figures, asks: how much influence do presidents really have over the economy anyway? I dove deeply into this here, riffing off of an academic paper comparing economic outcomes between terms when D’s or R’s controlled the White House. The economy grows faster under Democrats, which is good to know,… Read more
But I do strongly suspect that policy makers–both the monetary and fiscal ones–won’t be ready for it. Over at WaPo.
I’m not trying to pull anyone out of the holiday spirit but you ought to know about this nifty bit of “carry trade” the banks have going right now, as per this piece from the WSJ. Since the Fed is now paying 0.50% interest on bank reserves held in their vaults—this is one way they’re… Read more
The US economy is posting solid numbers in important places: GDP is consistently growing around a trend of slightly north of 2 percent, we’re adding around 200,000 jobs per month, which is more than enough to put downward pressure on the remaining slack in the job market. It’s true that wage growth and especially inflation… Read more