So, there’s apparently a little fiscal deal in the air. What’s one to make of it? The WaPo has not much good to say about it—too timid, doesn’t whack the debt enough, etc. The WSJ is a bit more positive. The deal under discussion, as far as I can tell, is to offset about $60 [...]
OK, there were too many negatives in that title. Let me say it more positively: we positively must extend UI benefits, lest 1.3 million UI recipients lose needed UI benefits in a job market that is improving, but still slack. Here’s the argument: the Senate and the House are working on a budget deal, and [...]
So, nu? There’s maybe a bissel budget deal in the offing? Let me get this straight: –Sen. Murray and Rep. Ryan may actually agree on a budget, i.e., top line discretionary spending numbers, that shaves a bit off of the mindless 2014/15 sequester cuts? –The healthcare.gov website is on the mend—not perfect, but much better. [...]
I gave this presentation the other day and figured folks in these parts might “enjoy” the slides. Pretty self-contained, but here’s a slight bit of annotation: Slide 3: I wrote about this here as well. Slide 4: references the CDSH position, introduced here. Slide 6: An awfully compelling picture, IMHO, of the speed of recent deficit [...]
In a refreshing break from all the health care mishegoss, I keep running into people who want to talk about this idea that faster inflation would help the economy pull out of its growth slog. Since I view faster growth as an extremely laudable and overlooked goal, allow me to say a bit more about [...]
…even our current politics might be able to clear it. Over at the NYT blog.
Especially in the light of yesterday’s weak jobs report, I keep coming back to the disturbing fact that as soon as the shutdown/debt ceiling debacle was at least temporarily behind us, the political system, without dropping a beat, went right back to deficit reduction mode. The President, to his credit, has always kept jobs and [...]
Keith Hennessey and I have a pretty rousing debate on budget policy, the role of government, the shutdown debacle, and more over at the NYT Room for Debate room. Check it out.
…without even a breath to consider that the immediate threat is unquestionably not the budget deficit; it’s the growth, jobs, and income deficits. Over at the NYT Economix blog. In addition to the points in the post, one thing you see happening quite clearly in recent days is how essential a crisis mentality is to [...]
Over at the NYT Economix blog.
In the last two days, I’ve been in Cleveland, Philly, DC, and Baltimore. I’ll have more to say about these travels in a later post, as I had many telling interactions with folks about all the stuff I write about up here, from recent government dysfunction to broader economic trends. Actually, not quite Cleveland but [...]
Besides this newspaper account of negative multipliers in action, you’re probably hungering for more information on the economic impact of the shutdown. –In terms of direct costs, which are lower than total costs (as you’ll see below), that of course depends on how long it lasts, but we’re likely talking single-digit billions. The three-week shutdown [...]
–The House actually pinged two bills back to the Senate: one that conditions funding the gov’t on defunding the health care law, and the other that exempts military pay from the shutdown. I suspect the Senate will unanimously approve the latter. The former will lead to the shutdown. –There’s a line of thought (e.g., from [...]
The House of Representatives took up the clean CR bill–the budget patch that keeps the government funded for another month-and-a-half–and quickly blew up the process by larding the bill up with unacceptable provisions. If their bill passes, which it likely will, it virtually assures the absence of a budget for FY14 which begins on Tues, [...]
*And, like my CBPP colleagues, I consider “prioritization” the same as default. Annie Lowrey provides a clear anatomy of the two different types of fiscal dysfunction Congress is toying around with right now: gov’t shutdown vs. default on the public debt. It’s the fiscal version of a medical journal article on the symptoms of various [...]
In a little over a month, according to the US Treasury, in order to pay bills they have already incurred, Congress needs to raise the government’s borrowing authority by increasing the debt ceiling. Since 1960, Congress has raised the limit 78 times, under both Republican and Democrat presidents (49 times under R’s, 29 under D’s). [...]
[I’m finishing a chapter on how fiscal policy went wrong, from which I’ve been spinning off a few posts. Here’s one on the (d)evolution of how policy makers think about fiscal policy. What can the recent history of ideas teach us about the damaging ascent of austerity and descent of Keynesian countercyclical policy?] ***** I [...]
Working on a book chapter on figuring out how to turn fiscal policy right-side up again, riffing off of my CDSH hobby horse: Me, I think the best position is to be a Cyclical Dove and a Structural Hawk (CDSH). If you’re a CDSH, your fiscal question in recessions and sloggy periods like the US [...]
CNBC’s John Harwood interviewed Treasury Sec’y Jack Lew this morning and I thought Lew made an interesting point. He was giving the White House talking point that “we won’t negotiate over the debt ceiling” and Harwood was like, OK, but you will negotiate over the budget…why is it OK to negotiate over one but not [...]
I’m just back from dual vacations, and I’m tempted to turn right back around. As readers may have noticed, I’ve been on a spiritual vacation from writing about the upcoming fiscal madness, including a) the need to fund the government at the end of next month when the fiscal year ends (and the current continuing [...]
For those focused on the upcoming budget debate, Greg Sargent raises an important point, one that’s worthy of your attention. Put on your boots—we’re going deep into the fiscal muck on this one. At the end of next month, the current patch that’s paying for government operations, called a continuing resolution (CR), expires. That means [...]
I’ve spilt a fair bit of e-ink up here pointing out the fiscal-wound-infliction-initiative known as austerity and its wicked step-child, sequestration. Well, I thought Ted Koppel crafted a compelling arugment about another self-inflected wound: our overreaction to terror. Here’s my take at the NYT’s Economix blog.
“With unemployment still high and declining only gradually, and with inflation running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future.” That’s Fed chair Ben Bernanke today speaking to the House about Fed policy and the economy. His key points were: –The economy is getting better, but [...]
Close readers of OTE may recall my weighing in on the important but obscure issue of fair value accounting (FVA) and the federal budget. The issue came up again today in a WaPo fact checker that (slightly) dings Sen. Elizabeth Warren for using CBO numbers (!!) that show an expected profit to the government over [...]