Archive for the ‘Fiscal Policy’ Category

Systematically over-predicting interest rates…why and what does that portend?

February 23rd, 2015

Over at the Upshot, but here’s the key figure which tells a heckuva story. Typically, forecasts that continuously err on one side versus more random error suggest there’s a structural change in the economy that’s left out of the model.   Plus, you gotta love the Queen Elizabeth anecdote and picture. Not to be rude,… Read more

The tyranny of averages, “deltas” and the need for some version of zero-based budgeting

February 9th, 2015

I’m trying to finish my book so this post will be briefer than it should be as it’s a weighty topic, but let me scratch out the idea as a marker to return to it. Reading much budget analysis of late, especially regarding spending levels and those unfortunate caps against which appropriators from both side… Read more

There’s much to be said about the President’s new budget proposal…

February 2nd, 2015

…and here are some tasty items to get you started: My man Bob Greenstein holds forth here. I take an angle I haven’t seen elsewhere here, though I explicitly admit that I may be nuts. My other man, Paul Van de Water, points out in a tweet some hawkish commentators are neglecting the progress that’s… Read more

1) The deficit is down because of less spending and more revenues 2) themes in tax reform to worry about.

January 22nd, 2015

The picture I’m about to show you is not a shocker if you follow this sort of thing but I made it for a presentation this AM and damnit, I’m gonna use it! It shows federal gov’t spending and receipts since 2007, in dollars adjusted for both inflation and population growth. The deficit/GDP ratio’s in… Read more