Archive for the ‘Fiscal Policy’ Category

Slides from today’s talk at the AFL-CIO

June 14th, 2016

Some attendees asked for my slides so here they are. A few explanations for those who weren’t there. NIWG=non-inflationary wage growth, which I argued equals the the three factors you see there. What I’m calling “Bivens x” is Josh Bivens estimate that at current or even somewhat faster wage growth rates it would take a… Read more

Catching up on some old stuff

June 13th, 2016

Given the horrific mass-shooting in Orlando over the weekend, it seems irreverent and off-point to scribble about the usual grist for the mill. So a bit of catchup and forward-looking stuff. –I’ll have a great interview in tomorrow’s WaPo with CBPPs Elizabeth McNichol on the need for infrastructure investment, with an emphasis on the state… Read more

Five simple formulas that capture today’s economic challenges and solutions.

March 21st, 2016

Contemporary economics is often criticized for being too mathematical. How can we really capture the complex dynamics of what’s happening in people’s economic lives with a bunch of formulas? In fact, the point of all the math is to distill people’s complex experiences down to something we can model, understand, measure, and maybe predict. Yes,… Read more

Charles Manski on the importance of accounting for policy uncertainty

February 20th, 2016

I forgot to post this here yesterday, as I think OTE’ers would quite like it, within a confidence interval, of course. Charles Manski, an economist/econometrician who’s thought deeply about the importance of accounting for errors in economic data and forecasts, and who also miraculously speaks fairly plainly about it, agreed to answer some questions I… Read more