The Challenges of Messaging: Political Economy Version
[OTE’ers: this is MUCH longer than the usual post. That’s because a) I have only an internal editor and he loves every line!, b) it’s too hot to go out and play, c) I’ve thought a lot (too much?) about this, and tried to learn from my many mistakes. Still, I think many will find [...]
What a Week!
I want to be careful not to get too upbeat about some…um…positive political and legal developments this week but one wonders if perhaps the ice might start cracking a bit. I’d guess not—that we’re still stuck with horribly divisive politics and the ensuing gridlock for a while. But on occasion today—a day filled with fractious [...]
PUH_LEASE! Nonsensical Tax Attacks Re SCOTUS ACA Decision
Conservatives are apparently in full whine over what they’re calling a new tax coming out of the SCOTUS health care decision this AM. As we now know, the SCOTUS declared that a penalty for refusing to purchase health insurance is permissible as a tax, in essence, approving the mandate by another name. Predictably, that wording [...]
More on the SCOTUS Health Care Decision
OK, coming down off my SCOTUS high. (“Justice Roberts, I’d be happy to mow your lawn this weekend…can I run out and get you a latte?…how about a backrub?”) A few scattered reflections. First, the Medicaid expansion limitation. The ACA, as legislated, expands Medicaid coverage to folks up to 133% of the poverty line, which [...]
SCOTUS ACA Decision: Amazing
According to SCOTUS blog, the ACA is upheld, the mandate is constitutional. We’re still trying to figure out the limitation on the Medicaid extension — this could be a problem in terms of extending coverage to the poor and near poor in certain states. But in general, a clear victory for necessary reform. I’ve got to [...]
Will SCOTUS Whack POTUS? Details at 10…maybe
The Supremes might sing at 10am re their view of the constitutionality of key parts of the Affordable Care Act. If you want to get into the weeds on various permutations of the outcome, Jon Cohn and Wonkblog dive deeply therein. One Cohn point I found interesting: economists like me walk around thinking that if the [...]
A Few Pieces from the Papes
First, Greece. The “pro-bailout” New Democracy party won a plurality of the vote in the Greek election and will now try to form a governing coalition that will try to keep the troubled nation in the Eurozone. But I suspect most folks paying attention to this are wondering two things: 1) what really changes? And [...]
The Role of Government
The President and Gov Romney gave dueling speeches in the swing state of Ohio yesterday, laying out broad economic themes, so it is incumbent on OTE to look under the hoods. Here’s what I’ve got. It is, of course, impossible for politics to be anything but deeply political right now. By that cryptic statement, I [...]
What’s Wrong with this Picture?
Unless this is a hoax, it’s the new bacon sundae, debuting this week at Burger King. Kill me now…oh, wait…you’re already doing that. See here and here for recent OTE thoughts on such matters. Source: Daily News Update: Well…to my surprise, many of you apparently enjoy a nice bowl of ice cream with bacon. I [...]
The Evolutionary Biology of Obesity
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the political economy of the obesity epidemic. Here, from a great oped in yesterday’s NYT, is the evolutionary science behind both the problem and the solution. Here’s the argument (though I strongly urge you to read the extremely well-crafted piece): Since sugar is a basic form of energy [...]
CBO’s Long-Term Budget Outlook: What It’s Telling Us
While chatting with a colleague today about the new CBO long-term budget outlook, we agreed there wasn’t much new there, but then he said something that stuck with me: “Of course, it shows that we can afford the entitlements.” To hear everyone from the WaPo editorial page to Bowles/Simpson to all the R’s and many [...]
This Morning’s Papes
Clearly, Mayor Bloomberg of NYC—my former home and the great American city—is reading OTE: New York City plans to enact a far-reaching ban on the sale of large sodas and other sugary drinks at restaurants, movie theaters and street carts, in the most ambitious effort yet by the Bloomberg administration to combat rising obesity. There’s a million counter-arguments—why [...]
The Political Economy of the Obesity Epidemic
A few weeks ago I was called upon to debate the idea of taxing big, high calorie soft drinks to help offset the high health costs of the American obesity epidemic. Since then, I been dipping a toe into this literature and finding it quite interesting. Given partisan gridlock, money in politics, and filibuster abuse, [...]
More on Slowing Health Costs
Yet another piece on whether some recent signs of slower growth in health care spending are for real or not (I’ve been blogging on this question). Interestingly, a number of the delivery system reforms that are central to the Affordable Care Act’s cost saving strategies are showing up already. These include things like accountable care organizations [...]
Is That the Sound of a Bending Cost Curve?
I’ve been working on a health care presentation that I’ll post tomorrow, but first I wanted to note this piece in today’s Wapo on recent trends in health care spending for persons under 65 with employer-sponsored insurance (ESI). The numbers are notable because they’re derived from a very large database provided by the insurers who [...]
Apples and Health Spending
Allow me to point and link you to two pieces in this AMs NYT. I don’t have time to give them the treatment they deserve—off to CA for the Milken Institute Global Conference where I’ll be debating tax reform and the role of budget deficits so more to come on those issues. The first article [...]
Trust Fund Exhaustion: A Moving Target
When the trustees of the Social Security and Medicare programs release their annual reports, one of the first thing folks look for is whether the life of the trust funds that finance these retirement security programs have been extended or reduced. Well, in today’s release, the life of the Social Security trust fund was reduced [...]
Snippets From this AM’s Papers
It’s a common concern among productivity freaks, and I include myself in that esteemed group, that as evolving economies shift from manufacturing to services, productivity growth is likely to slow due to inherent differentials in the pace of output-per-hour (i.e., productivity) between the two sectors. As economist William Baumol, an early writer about this dynamic, [...]
YAIA
Haven’t done one of these for a while, so let’s get to it (questions edited). From this post on Media Matters punchy reaction to a misleading WaPo article re health reform and deficits: Q: Medicare and Social Security are funded with a dedicated payroll tax. If the dedicated taxes ended, would the programs end? What [...]
Home Health Aides and Labor Standards
Audiences often ask me what it is we should be doing policy-wise to offset wage stagnation, inequality, working poverty. There’s no silver bullet, of course, but one under-appreciated part of the solution, particularly for those in low-paid jobs, is improving, expanding, and enforcing labor standards. By labor standards, I mean things like minimum wages, overtime [...]
Media Matters Nails It
I’ve left it to the very able hands of many in blogosphere to deservedly pummel the terrible WaPo story on how the CBO got it all wrong and the Affordable Care Act will actually increase the deficit. (I’m on the Acela with a plucky but spotty internet connection so I can’t give you all the [...]
The President’s Speech and the Ryan Budget: Two Very Alternative Visions
I’ve written that Rep Paul Ryan did the world a favor by not trying to hide the ball with his budget—now adopted by House Republicans and endorsed by Gov Romney. Their vision for America is clear, a vision that we at CBPP have been elaborating through a set of publications in recent days (see here, [...]
Health Care Reform and WITTs and YOYOs
Re the SCOTUS’s review of the health care reform case this week: We don’t know where they’ll come out, and speaking of health care, it’s not healthy to be wringing hands and rending garments until their decision comes out in June. I suppose until then we can comfort ourselves with smart analyses like this one [...]
The Myth of the Myth of the Disappearing Middle Class
Brookings economist Ron Haskins puts a hurt on some numbers in this AMs Washington Post. His piece has two parts. The first part, discussed below, has a pretty fat thumb on the scale. The second is about how decisions regarding marriage and the pursuit of higher ed can have a profound effect on a person [...]
Jared Bernstein’s areas of expertise include federal and state economic and fiscal policies, income inequality and mobility, trends in employment and earnings, international comparisons, and the analysis of financial and housing markets.
