The NYT and the Causes of the Income Slump
The NYT’s middle-class income series is back with an interesting list of the factors most commonly cited for the slump in median income in the US (I posted a few initial thoughts about this series here). Though they left out a really important one (but you have to read this to the end to find [...]
The NYT Introduces a Series on Middle Class Decline
So, I see where the NYT is introducing a series on the economic challenges facing the American middle class. That’s good news—it’s obviously a topic of great concern, yet there’s surprisingly little systematic analysis of the economic plight of middle-income families. I wanted to offer a bit of orientation or background material from my own [...]
Scattershots from the Road
Quick road trip in progress so just a few scattered impressions from the hotel room, and pre-coffee so I can’t be held accountable. Econowatch: Yesterday’s retail sales numbers were a concern because there’s a negative trend there — see figure — over the last quarter (April, May, June) which corresponds to the slower growth in [...]
Prices: You’ve Got a Friend…
“When you’re down, and troubled, and you need a helping hand…” Last Friday’s jobs report confirmed a weakening trend in employment growth and an unemployment rate stuck north of 8%. We’re still growing, and most industries outside of the public sector are adding jobs, but too slowly. Other important indicators, most notably real GDP growth, [...]
Larry Mishel and the Wage/Productivity Gap — LIVE!
Here’s me and the great labor economist Larry Mishel discussing some of his recent work on the gap between the real compensation of middle-wage workers and productivity growth. Understanding this issue has become central to the inequality debate and Larry — who’s also the president of the Economic Policy Institute — understands it deeply. One [...]
Econ Round Up: Truncated Version
I’ve been swamped all week and thus unable to sit down and plot the economic data of the moment. I might get to that later, but until then, here’s a quick, informal assessment of current conditions. –The bottom line is that we’re slogging along at trend–about 2% of GDP–and probably will be for the near [...]
Wow…Just Wow: The Depth of the Hole
The articles on the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finance release from yesterday give you an excellent flavor of the magnitude of what’s been lost in the Great Recession. But I haven’t seen this figure posted yet (though I may have missed it somewhere, of course). It’s simply the trend in real median net worth from the [...]
Talkin’ Bout Min Wages
Over at MSNBC online. Glad to see this issue getting some buzz.
Another Dubious Fact Check
Important Update: I mistakenly wrote that PolitiFact rated this as “mostly true” when their actual rating was “half true,” so they were a bit more critical than I thought. MY BAD. Still, it should have been rated “mostly false.” As I’ve said before, I’m all for these fact checkers taking a close look at the [...]
Underemployment and College Grads: Is There a Wage Premium?
I keep seeing this statistic that large percentages of young college graduates—around half–are un- or underemployed. This doesn’t surprise me, in that the downturn has been tough on young people in general, though those with college educations certainly have a leg up on those without. The rhetoric around this part of the debate, especially in [...]
What’s Fair? Five (or Six) Principles of Tax Fairness
This word “fairness” keeps coming up around tax day, particularly in discussions around the Buffett rule. Many have questioned what I and others mean by “fair.” I’ve got five answers. A fair tax system should be: 1) Progressive: those with more income pay a larger share of it in taxes; 2) One that doesn’t exacerbate [...]
Why the Improving Economy Doesn’t Always Feel Like It’s Improving
Along with the national and regional statistics economy-trackers follow, I find it useful in my travels to talk to people on the ground. If you want a general feel for the local economy, ask around and—discounting for the non-random, convenience sample—you can often get a pretty good idea. The sense I get from folks is [...]
Minimum Wage and the Family Budget
Nice bit of analysis here on how far the minimum wage goes doesn’t go relative to “Fair Market Rents” (about the 45th percentile of the rental distribution in each area)—h/t: RK. A more nuanced view would include the Earned Income Tax Credit, a critically important wage subsidy for working parents with low-incomes that can add [...]
Full Employment: A Force Against Rising Inequality and Stagnant Incomes
One of the more compelling graphs in the inequality debate is the growth of real family incomes for low, middle, and high income families, going all the way back to the 1940s. The reason for its popularity is that it’s one of the few pictures (though not the only one) that very clearly delineates a [...]
Charles Murray’s “Coming Apart”
Charles Murray’s Coming Apart is a frustrating book, and not because it fails to resonate but because he identifies a real problem–the increasing distance between income classes–then fails to convincingly document or explain it. Part of this is the limiting and confusing way he uses data to craft his story, and part is his unwillingness [...]
Shuffling Off to St. Louis…
…tomorrow to give a talk at Washington U, at the invitation of the great poverty warrior Michael Sherraden. Here’s the introduction to the paper (haven’t written the rest yet) and here’s the PowerPoint deck which takes you through the whole thing. Check it out and see what you think. Note that the very last bullet [...]
Threats to the Current Recovery
Let’s take a well-deserved break from manufacturing and tax policy and cheer things up with a post on threats to the current recovery. As I’ve stressed, IMHO we’re not yet into the virtuous cycle where we can count on above-trend growth to generate jobs, which boosts paychecks, which supports consumption, which signals investors to get [...]
Some Context for Tonight’s Speech
It sounds like the President is getting ready to deliver a speech that speaks directly to many of the living standards issues you read about here at OTE–issues regarding a fair shake for the middle class, the failure of trickle down, the need for a serious manufacturing policy. In that light, keep in mind this [...]
More Mobility Pictures and Words
I promised I’d follow up on this and—though it wasn’t a pinky shake (the most sacred promise in my house)—I do try to stay true to my word. [These come from the mobility chapter I contributed to the 2008/09 version of the book State of Working America, an EPI publication.] The first figure reflects some [...]
The Best of CBPP Graphs: Guideposts on the Road Back to Factville
My CBPP colleagues contributed many important graphics to the debates of 2011 in lots of different areas, including fiscal, poverty, inequality, health care, and more. But which ones to highlight in this end-of-year look back at the best of 2011? I generally used a market test: these are the ones that were most widely circulated. [...]
Forecasting HH Income
Someone asked me what I how I thought middle-class incomes held up in 2011. We won’t know until Census releases median income numbers for 2011 in the early fall of 2012, but we can make an educated guess. That is, based on the time-series of household median income going back to the mid-1960s, along with [...]
Nothing’s Perfect, But the EITC Gets Darn Close
A lot of people are asking me about this David Cay Johnston article, the title of which bizarrely intimates that the EITC (earned income tax credit) raises poverty. It does not. In fact, this robust, refundable tax credit for low-wage workers (refundable means that if their tax credit exceeds their tax liability, the IRS sends [...]
The First of Many Posts on Inequality
I’m compelled to write a bunch about inequality. What are the facts of the case (my CBPP colleagues are doing great stuff on this that I want to promote)? Why has it gone up so much? Why does it matter? Where is it headed? Why so much interest in it right now? Is it a [...]
Pesky Brother-in-Law, Thanksgiving Edition
Ah, Thanksgiving. Savory food, family…and that pesky relative with a PhD in Fox News that keeps needling you to the point where you can’t even enjoy Cousin Chrissy’s carrot soufflé. [All references are to actual dishes at my family table! Also, usual disclaimer and Thanksgiving tidings to my bros-in-law--Jim, Clint, Sean, Andy, Tom. Earlier editions [...]
Jared Bernstein’s areas of expertise include federal and state economic and fiscal policies, income inequality and mobility, trends in employment and earnings, international comparisons, and the analysis of financial and housing markets.
