Archive for the ‘Jobs’ Category

What is the “natural rate” for u6?

November 23rd, 2015

Not the sexiest title, I grant you, but important stuff, nevertheless. Those of us interested in just how close we are to full employment like to track the more comprehensive “u6” rate, aka, “underemployment.” It includes all the unemployed, but also the millions of involuntary part-timers (IPT)—who are, quite literally, underemployed—plus a small subset of those… Read more

Solid jobs report will likely lead the Fed to raise next month…but what about after that?

November 6th, 2015

The nation’s employers added 271,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 5% in a solid report on labor market conditions. Wages grew 2.5% over the past year, their strongest yearly performance since the recession officially ended in June 2009. Today’s report portrayed a very different job market than that seen in… Read more

The next recession is out there somewhere. Meanwhile, we’ve got other problems.

October 25th, 2015

So Ylan Mui warns that a recession is out there somewhere, and we’re getting closer to it every day. That is, by definition, true. And while she garners some data to make the case, one can find data on both sides of the issue. Generally speaking, economists cannot predict recessions. Back in the mid-2000s, Dean… Read more

Lessons from the last downturn for the next one.

October 16th, 2015

Courtesy of economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, here is the latest paper from our full employment project at CBPP. B&Z take the most thorough look at the full spate of interventions -fiscal, monetary, financial-we threw at the Great Recession. Here’s my summary over at WaPo and here’s some of their intro: The massive and… Read more