Archive for the ‘Jobs’ Category

Data Note: There’s a reason we here at OTE often focus on year-over-year changes

May 25th, 2015

There’s been a significant disturbance in the force for those of us who pay attention to government economic data releases, specifically regarding GDP. A number of commentators, including CNBC’s Steve Liesman, have noted a negative pattern regarding first quarter GDP data. That is, as this San Francisco Fed note shows (see Figure 2), in the… Read more

What we’re arguing about when we’re arguing about trade deals.

May 18th, 2015

One problem in this whole debate over the Trans-Pacific Partnership is that we lose the forest for the trees. We end up arguing about trade deals—and worse, a deal almost no one has read (because it’s negotiated in secret)—as opposed to the broader underlying issues of the economic impact of trade from the perspective of… Read more

How we calculate US job losses from currency management

May 11th, 2015

[This post was written jointly with Ben Spielberg] In this PostEverything piece, Bernstein and Baker quote estimates of jobs lost in the U.S. due to higher trade deficits induced by currency management. In this memo, we explain how we derived the numbers cited in that piece. The analysis is “back-of-the-envelope” and is thus a rough… Read more

Jobs Report: Solid April Follows Weak March; Some Signs of Slower Job Growth; Negative Impact of Strong Dollar Clear in Manufacturing

May 8th, 2015

Payrolls rose 223,000 last month, in line with expectations, and the jobless rate ticked down to 5.4%, a seven-year low. March’s already low payroll gain was revised down to only 85,000; combining that with February’s revision takes payrolls down 39,000 over those months. As shown below, the March outlier takes the three-month average down to… Read more

Check it out, OTE’ers: The Reconnection Agenda is upon us!

April 24th, 2015

Read the intro to my new book, The Reconnection Agenda: Reuniting Growth and Prosperity, over at the WaPo PostEverything. Or better yet, download the whole damn book at let me know what you think. You can buy a hard copy–you know, with paper pages, here. [Here’s the cover, which I think is great, by Anthony… Read more