One wants to read little into a monthly jobs report and even less–much less–into a day in the equity markets. But I found it interesting that the stock market reacted uncharacteristically positively to today’s solid jobs report. Over at the NYT Economix blog.
OK, there were too many negatives in that title. Let me say it more positively: we positively must extend UI benefits, lest 1.3 million UI recipients lose needed UI benefits in a job market that is improving, but still slack. Here’s the argument: the Senate and the House are working on a budget deal, and [...]
Payrolls rose 203,000 last month and the unemployment rate fell from 7.3% to 7%, the lowest it has been since late 2008, according to this morning’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It looks like a solid report, with job gains in most industries, a falloff in involuntary part-timers, a tick up in [...]
November jobs report out tomorrow at 8:30am. First impressions from yours truly shortly thereafter (following CNBC hit at 7:30, so busy morning!). Here’s the Bloomberg expectations: Source: Bloomberg Me, I’m at 185,000 for total payrolls, 190,000 for private. See you then.
What with all this talk about the new Baker/Bernstein full employment book, including the musical version debuting tonight in DC (OK, it’s chin music, but still…), it seemed an opportune time to remind readers about the extent of the problem, including a new metric on the number of jobs we’ve failed to create by spending [...]
This piece from today’s NYT comparing outcomes in neighboring states with quite different approaches to economic policy caught my eye for two reasons. First, some of the best empirical research in economics exploits these sorts of natural experiments. The idea is that neighboring states, in this case Wisconsin and Minnesota, face roughly similar economic forces, so [...]
Despite the gridlock that would seem to preclude a serious stab at tax reform, Sen. Max Baucus made precisely that parry yesterday with a proposal to change the way the US taxes multinational corporations (MNCs). It’s just a rough draft, but it looks to me to have upsides and downsides. Downsides: –Revenue neutrality: Unless you’re [...]
If you follow this debate and know the players, there’s an interesting and IMHO, progressive, consensus forming. Over at the NYT Economix blog.
So, let me get this straight. I leave the country for a week, and you still haven’t fixed the federal budget…or the health care website?! C’mon, people. Back from a great trip to London, still one of the world’s truly great cities. Just walking around is a blast. I did prolific gum flapping, and will [...]
…across the pond, that is, for a few days of meetings and talks in London. I’m quite excited to be speaking at the famed Chatham House where I will be sure to observe “Chatham House Rules.” Equally excited to interact with the very smart and increasingly influential UK think-tank, the Resolution Foundation, around the release [...]
Over at the NYT Economix blog. Plotting smoothed trend-lines through some key variables helps amp up the signal to noise a bit.
Payrolls were up 204,000 last month, well above expectations, and the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.3%, due in part to the government shutdown, which lasted through the first half of the October. The payroll number is a big, upside surprise (MarketWatch called it “shockingly strong”). Even though, as explained below, furloughed government workers [...]
A conversation in my house tonight, lightly edited: me: Hey, you should check out this oped Dean and I have in the NYT. wife (interested): What’s it about? me: It’s about the trade deficit. wife (warily): The deficit? me: the trade deficit. wife: So, not the budget deficit? me: No, this one’s about lowering the [...]
Paul Krugman has a piece up today about how Germany’s large and persistent trade surpluses play an important, destructive role in the slump in the rest of the Euro area—essentially, they import much-needed labor demand from the rest of the zone. The implication is that there’s some type of market manipulation going on behind these [...]
In a post the other day about the Federal Reserve and inflation, I noted that a commonly used rule to gauge where the Fed should set the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) was pointing at around -2% right now. However, I noted that: …if you tweak that calculation in a way that I think you should, [...]
…even our current politics might be able to clear it. Over at the NYT blog.
Running out so more to say on this later—it is, um, kinda important. But cutting to the chase, our too-slow job growth is a function of our too-slow GDP growth, and a big part of that is fiscal drag and other intangible nastiness emanating from our dysfunctional politics. In other words, that stuff has a [...]
Especially in the light of yesterday’s weak jobs report, I keep coming back to the disturbing fact that as soon as the shutdown/debt ceiling debacle was at least temporarily behind us, the political system, without dropping a beat, went right back to deficit reduction mode. The President, to his credit, has always kept jobs and [...]
[Thanks to the shutdown, the September jobs report was delayed. It was released this AM, which is disarmingly weird for those of us with data-driven circadian rhythms keyed to the first Friday of the month. Here’s what I posted back on October 4, when it should have been released. I was correct to be below [...]
Reflecting on the recent shutdown/debt ceiling debacle, the resolution of which is only a few months’ respite until the same self-imposed deadlines reappear, you’ve got to wonder: what’s wrong with America? Certainly this is the question I’m hearing from friends and other observers from abroad. Economic authorities, like the IMF or Asian bankers with large [...]
…without even a breath to consider that the immediate threat is unquestionably not the budget deficit; it’s the growth, jobs, and income deficits. Over at the NYT Economix blog. In addition to the points in the post, one thing you see happening quite clearly in recent days is how essential a crisis mentality is to [...]
The damn shutdown means no jobs report today, totally screwing up my monthly circadian rhythm. And depriving the markets, the Federal Reserve, and everyone else an important monthly snapshot of the job market at a sensitive moment. That last bit is especially relevant for the data-driven Fed, as they use the monthly payroll and jobless [...]
Besides this newspaper account of negative multipliers in action, you’re probably hungering for more information on the economic impact of the shutdown. –In terms of direct costs, which are lower than total costs (as you’ll see below), that of course depends on how long it lasts, but we’re likely talking single-digit billions. The three-week shutdown [...]
Washington, DC 10/1/13 The fiscal year began today, but it did so with the Federal government in partial shutdown, as Congress was unable to come to a last minute budget agreement. While positioning has predictably begun in the battle for public opinion, early poll results suggest that the public is unhappy with the obstructionist strategy [...]