Me old mate Heidi Shierholz has a neat table showing the ratio of unemployment rates from today’s report to those of 2007. What I found revealing was the absence of an obvious pattern among the jobless ratios across age, occupation, education, race, and so on. That suggests, as Heidi underscores, that it’s pervasive weak demand,… Read more
The nation’s payrolls grew by a greater-than-expected 175,000 last month, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 6.7%, according to today’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In a report that has both good and bad news for the American workforce, February payrolls appeared to shake off analysts’ cold-weather concerns, adding a… Read more
And like moth-to-flame, I rev up the hamsters, blindfold the chimp, and forecast the payroll numbers. My model spits out 140k for total payrolls and 150k for private, so I’m a bit below the consensus shown below. As always, I predict the unemp rate to tick up, down, or sideways. Slightly more seriously, here’s a… Read more
This time, on a particularly hot topic: reversing hysteresis! Over at the NYT Economix blog.
I’m very much looking forward to participating in this forum at the Urban Institute on Monday, where I’ll be on a panel talking about the role of higher education in both the economy and the lives of the people in the economy. From the event website, here’s part of the motivation for the discussion: Despite… Read more