Some attendees asked for my slides so here they are. A few explanations for those who weren’t there. NIWG=non-inflationary wage growth, which I argued equals the the three factors you see there. What I’m calling “Bivens x” is Josh Bivens estimate that at current or even somewhat faster wage growth rates it would take a… Read more
In an unexpectedly downbeat jobs report, employers added only 38,000 jobs last month, the worst month for job gains since employment started recovering in 2010. Downward revisions trimmed the employment gains for the prior two months by 59,000, and the labor force participation rate fell again in May, as it had in April. That drove… Read more
Expectations are for about 160K on jobs, which happens to be last months number. My model says 135K, but I think it’s low–some funny stuff going on with UI claims. GS researchers note that: “Payroll growth should be held back by a strike at Verizon Communications, which BLS figures suggest idled 35,100 workers during the… Read more
In case OTE’ers missed these: We need to be more honest about the costs of trade. The policy and politics behind some of today’s populist anger, at least the part about the economy.
Though last Friday’s jobs report came in a bit under expectations, many analysts, myself included, noted that (nominal) wage growth has picked up in recent months. That is both expected and precisely as it should be. As the job market tightens, employers should have to bid wage offers up more to get and keep the… Read more