This Friday morning at 8:30, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the jobs report for June. Those of us who scrutinize such things will be watching closely to see if there’s a bounce-back from last month’s dismal count of 38,000 jobs. The consensus expectation is for 180,000, but last month, the consensus was for… Read more
Some attendees asked for my slides so here they are. A few explanations for those who weren’t there. NIWG=non-inflationary wage growth, which I argued equals the the three factors you see there. What I’m calling “Bivens x” is Josh Bivens estimate that at current or even somewhat faster wage growth rates it would take a… Read more
In an unexpectedly downbeat jobs report, employers added only 38,000 jobs last month, the worst month for job gains since employment started recovering in 2010. Downward revisions trimmed the employment gains for the prior two months by 59,000, and the labor force participation rate fell again in May, as it had in April. That drove… Read more
Expectations are for about 160K on jobs, which happens to be last months number. My model says 135K, but I think it’s low–some funny stuff going on with UI claims. GS researchers note that: “Payroll growth should be held back by a strike at Verizon Communications, which BLS figures suggest idled 35,100 workers during the… Read more
In case OTE’ers missed these: We need to be more honest about the costs of trade. The policy and politics behind some of today’s populist anger, at least the part about the economy.