Archive for the ‘Jobs’ Category

A Favorable Flow?

April 7th, 2014

I’ve got a longer piece on job market indicators going up later on the NYT blog, but for now, here’s a factoid that I thought deserved a look. To my mind, one of the most important labor market questions right now is whether the labor force participation rate will start climbing back out of its… Read more

Jobs Report: First Impression

April 4th, 2014

A broadly positive jobs report just out for March shows that payrolls were up by 192,000 and both the labor force and weekly hours worked grew as well.  The jobless rate was unchanged at 6.7%, but the closely watched labor force participation rate popped up two-tenths to 63.2%, as about 500,000 entered the labor market. … Read more

The President, the Pen, the Phone, and the States

April 3rd, 2014

I’m often asked what President Obama can really accomplish on the economy with just “the pen and the phone,” i.e., what can he do without Congress.  It’s a tough question, because moving the needle on unemployment or implementing economic policies that reach lots of people requires Congressional cooperation, of which there ain’t hardly none these days…. Read more

Jobs Day on Friday!

April 2nd, 2014

I’ve run my forecast and have come in a bit below consensus, at 170,000 for payrolls.  Consensus, as you see below from the Bloomberg expectations, is for slightly over 200,000. There’s still maybe some weather dampening the data, though less so than in previous months.  GDP grew less than 3% in 2013Q4, and forecasts for… Read more

Profits and Jobs: Not that Into Each Other

March 31st, 2014

Over at the NYT Economix blog.  This one looks at other recoveries that have lasted as long as this one and asks about, among other things, the relationship between historically quite high corporate profits, yet weak employment and wage growth.  It makes you wonder, “who are those job creators everybody around here’s always going on… Read more