Archive for the ‘Jobs’ Category

Jobs report: Some softening in May. Should the Fed hold off on next rate hike? I say…[read on]

June 2nd, 2017

Employers added only 138,000 jobs last month, well below expectations for 175,000. Revisions to payrolls for the prior two months reduced employment gains by 66,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent, its lowest level since 2001, but for the wrong reason: labor force participation fell by two-tenths of a percent. In other words, this… Read more

Housing, justice, jobs, and the flat Phillips Curve: Racial discrimination and a possible role for the Fed

May 15th, 2017

Over at WaPo. One attribute of the post is the link to Richard Rothstein’s important new book documenting the “unhidden policies” responsible for racial residential segregation. The rigor of his research creates a bullet proof case for a) the laws, covenants, and zoning practices that kept African-Americans in high-poverty areas, and b) the difficulty unwinding… Read more

April jobs report: Have we reached full employment??!!

May 5th, 2017

April showers–it’s pouring in DC today (are the skies crying after the health care vote?)–brought job-market flowers, in the form of another solid jobs report. I’ll get to the topline numbers in a sec, but this note is going to be about the fundamental, Talmudic question: is the US job market at full employment? Payrolls… Read more

My jobs analysis slightly delayed today

May 5th, 2017

Going on CNBC this AM at 8 to discuss jobs report until after the 8:30 release so my analysis will be slightly delayed. Consensus is for about 190K on payrolls, unemp to tick up to 4.6%. My forecast comes in a bit lower than consensus and I’ll be watching for an upward revision to March’s… Read more