Archive for the ‘Jobs’ Category

Jobs day tomorrow

July 7th, 2016

I know I always say this but coming off of last month’s extremely weak report, this is an important one. The key word is “bounceback.” Consensus expectations are for 180,000 on payrolls and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.8%. My model says 150K, fwiw, which ain’t much (not being self-deprecating; that holds for… Read more

Slides from today’s talk at the AFL-CIO

June 14th, 2016

Some attendees asked for my slides so here they are. A few explanations for those who weren’t there. NIWG=non-inflationary wage growth, which I argued equals the the three factors you see there. What I’m calling “Bivens x” is Josh Bivens estimate that at current or even somewhat faster wage growth rates it would take a… Read more

May’s seriously downbeat jobs report puts kibosh on Fed rate hike; underscores need for deep infrastructure dive

June 3rd, 2016

In an unexpectedly downbeat jobs report, employers added only 38,000 jobs last month, the worst month for job gains since employment started recovering in 2010. Downward revisions trimmed the employment gains for the prior two months by 59,000, and the labor force participation rate fell again in May, as it had in April. That drove… Read more