Here’s something more uplifting than anything you’ve read here lately: it’s an “onshoring” piece–bringing back jobs that were offshored in earlier years–about how some textile jobs are coming back to the US (from the NYT). The piece hits on a lot of our themes here at OTE: –The persistent US deficit in traded goods, including textiles, [...]
…neither of which is original, but whadyagonnadoaboutit? First, it’s pretty well understood at this point that the tick down in unemployment last month, from 7.4% to 7.3% was a function of weakness not strength: the rate fell not because more folks got jobs but because more folks left the job market. But will they come [...]
In policy discussions about getting back to full employment, I often make the point that if the market fails to create the needed quantity of jobs, there’s a role for policy to help make up the difference. Many find that a radical idea, or at least one that perhaps made sense in the 1930s, but [...]
Actually, over at the NJ Star-Ledger, courtesy of their editorial page editor, Tom Moran.
It’s now pretty well understood that of the two ways you can reduce unemployment, we got the bad one today. That is, the jobless rate can fall because more jobseekers land jobs—good–or because they give up looking—bad. Today’s tick down was of the latter type. The labor force participation fell two-tenths of a point to [...]
Over at the NYT Economix blog, I argue for no tapir taper in Sept.
Payrolls were up 169,000 last month and the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.3%, according to this morning’s report from the BLS. However, as has sometimes been the case in recent months, the decline in unemployment rate was not to more people getting more jobs. It was due to a decline in the share of [...]
Why so important? Because everyone is going to throw their caution to the wind re standard errors, revisions, and all the other good reasons to not make such a big deal out of these noisy, monthly numbers. And why’s that? Because of the taper. I can’t claim to predict how markets will bounce tomorrow. Though [...]
Upon reading my morning Wonkbook, I rarely say to myself, “hey, that’s not right!” I typically say, “that’s interesting” or “just as I thought” or “neat graphic” or “hmmm…I’ll borrow that point and use it later.” So it was with surprise that I read this headline from their morning e-missive: Trade deficit widens as imports [...]
Over at the NYT Economix blog. Despite the claims of critics, there’s little evidence that employers are creating more part-time jobs in order to avoid the ACA employer mandate (which is now a year off, btw). A post by Dean Baker led me to wonder what a scatterplot of the share of involuntary part-timers (IPT) [...]
Ah, Labor Day. An extra day of rest from the weekly toil, and often an end-of-summer barbecue with friends, family, and oh yeah…that annoying brother-in-law, uncle, or neighbor who’s got it all figured out ‘cause he learned it on Fox. In yet another helpful service we provide here at OTE, here are some snappy comebacks designed to [...]
As we approach the 50th anniversary of the historical civil rights march on Washington, a number of analyses have raised hard questions about the lack of economic progress among African-Americans. The WaPo notes, for example, that: [f]ifty years ago, the unemployment rate was 5 percent for whites and 10.9 percent for blacks, according to the [...]
Could it be that Sen. Ted Cruz and other rabid opponents of Obamacare were just waiting for some simple, convincing econometrics showing the lack of evidence regarding the law’s impact on the creation of part-time jobs? If so, here it is, over at the NYT Economix blog.
“I wouldn’t want Larry Summers to mow my yard.” That little gem was uttered Monday by Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kan) in what has to be a fight the White House really doesn’t want to have right now. They’ve got two very strong candidates in Summers and Janet Yellen, and beyond pointing out that any chance [...]
Back when we used to argue about the Keynesian stimulus known as the Recovery Act, I posted charts like those you see here: very simple pictures showing that real GDP started growing shortly after the Act’s implementation at the same time that job losses decelerated. I’ll be the first to admit that there’s lots of [...]
I usually find economist Robert Shiller’s commentaries resonant and insightful, but this one seemed more confusing than enlightening. The thrust of the piece is the concern that government activities to promote innovation can just as easily stifle it. The piece introduces the notion of corporatism, from a new book by Ed Phelps. What means “corporatism”? [...]
Devoted OTEers know that I’m careful not to shoot everything that moves, but the more I hang around the DC tax debate, the more I’m exposed to deeply misguided thinking that seems largely motivated by the conviction that poor people—in this case, the working poor—have too much money and the wealthy have too little. That’s [...]
Some analysis of this claim by my CBPP colleague Paul Van de Water and me, over at Politico. Update: Evan Soltas gets the same finding we do with much the same data. That’s always good to see. BTW, Evan correctly notes the volatility of the Household Survey, the source for monthly data on part-time employment. [...]
Robert Putnam tells a resonant and heartfelt story about how his hometown in Ohio has changed since he grew up. It’s a microcosm of the economic and social trends that have beset towns and cities across the nation, featuring the impacts of globalization, changes in family structure, inequality, and diminished mobility. To Putnam, a sociologist, [...]
The New Yorker’s John Cassidy and I are on the same page re ways in which Washington could and should help Detroit. I don’t see a federal bailout forthcoming, but, like Cassidy, I’ve stressed that the federal government should …help with the tasks of downsizing and of rebuilding roads and schools, and taking other measures [...]
On the NYT’s Economix blog–An Economy Stuck in Second Gear. Really, in between first and second right now, but you’ll see what I mean. BTW, I read that only 7% of new cars have manual transmissions, so clearly I need to start mining for a new analogy. Though this one has so much going for it [...]
Payrolls were up 162,000 last month and the unemployment rate fell to 7.4%, the lowest it has been since December 2008. The report shows continued improvement in the job market, but at a rate that remains moderate, in keeping with an economy that is reliably expanding but has yet to really accelerate. The report, like [...]
The excitement just doesn’t let up around here. Another jobs day, another set of forecasts, results, revisions, and excessive analysis of an indicator whose signal-to-noise ratio, while it exists, is lower than we give it credit for. Here’s the Bloomberg expectations for July’s job market: Source: Bloomberg My own forecast is for 185k on total payrolls [...]
Over at the NYT Economix blog.