I often cite the great New Orleans pianist/composer at moments like this, when the economic data are jumping around this way and that. Most analysts, myself included, agreed that first quarter GDP was a large outlier, but not to put too fine a point on it, that -2.9% was just a crap number (here’s my… Read more
I was out of the box early on the dust-up around the survival of the Export-Import Bank, but haven’t weighed in since it’s heated up, so allow me to briefly revisit. (You’ll recall that the Ex-Im Bank provides government-backed guarantees to private loans made to other countries under the condition that they use the credit… Read more
Given that the Congressional Budget Office kindly provides an historical series of both potential GDP and the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), aka the lowest unemployment rate they judge to be consistent with stable inflation, we can compare those to the actual outcomes and measure slack over the ages. That is, define every quarter that… Read more
It is way too common in this town to run into people who think that poor people are poor because they don’t work. Influential Congressman Paul Ryan has referred to safety net benefits as “a hammock” that create “poverty trap” and a culture of non-work, a rap as old as poverty itself. Various critics of… Read more
Here’s a podcast wherein I discuss many things economic–and I even slip in a highly topical sports analogy.