Archive for the ‘Jobs’ Category

Back to the Future…for lunch

September 12th, 2015

While I’m wide open to evidence that I’m wrong, I’ve been skeptical of the claim that the robots are coming for our jobs. To be technical, the economics question is this: is the pace at which labor-saving technology is entering the workforce accelerating? I’ll explain the italics in a moment. There are various pieces of… Read more

Jobs Report: Yes, the unemployment rate is 5.1%. No, we are not at full employment.

September 4th, 2015

  Job growth came in below expectations, as August’s payrolls grew 173,000, according to this morning’s jobs report from BLS. Private sector job growth was particularly weak, at 140,000, its weakest month since March. Wage growth remains tame—remarkably so, given the low unemployment rate, which fell to 5.1% last month—and the labor force remains historically… Read more

Standard rant on standard errors

September 2nd, 2015

I keep hearing this strange refrain about this Friday’s jobs numbers and it’s freaking me out a little. Important people pulling important levers seem to have decided that August’s job growth is really decisive in some cosmic way that’s going to resolve any lack of clarity regarding job market slack and the Fed’s plans for rates…. Read more

Two up-to-date pictures of labor market slack

September 1st, 2015

[by JB and Ben Spielberg] Earlier today, Jared wrote: “Look at the employment ratio; look at Andy Levin’s all-in slack measure (I’ll post something on this later)—they’re still signaling a job market that is unquestionably improving but is still far from full employment.” In this post, we briefly explain some of the evidence that there’s… Read more