Archive for the ‘Jobs’ Category

Dr. John, Ph.D. on the Spate of Current Economic Indicators: “Refried Confusion is Making Itself Clear”

July 2nd, 2014

I often cite the great New Orleans pianist/composer at moments like this, when the economic data are jumping around this way and that. Most analysts, myself included, agreed that first quarter GDP was a large outlier, but not to put too fine a point on it, that -2.9% was just a crap number (here’s my… Read more

A Very Brief History of Slack in the US Economy

June 17th, 2014

Given that the Congressional Budget Office kindly provides an historical series of both potential GDP and the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), aka the lowest unemployment rate they judge to be consistent with stable inflation, we can compare those to the actual outcomes and measure slack over the ages. That is, define every quarter that… Read more