Today’s Papers
–The NYT ran one of their “Sunday Dialogues” based off of my full employment op-ed. I thought it was a great selection of provocative letters, all worth a read. Like many people I talk to about this, especially non-economists, most respondents agreed with the proposition that something’s changed, i.e., accelerated, in the impact of labor-saving [...]
CBO Says President’s Debt Path is Even Lower Than WH’s Own Estimate
Just in case your weekend isn’t getting off to an exciting enough start, here’s another chart to make you go “hmmm…” The Congressional Budget Office always re-estimates the President’s budget. Not that they don’t trust the President’s budget analysts at OMB, but, you know…they’re the official scorekeepers. When you work in the White House, as I [...]
Call For Submissions: Got Questions? I’ve Got Answers (Maybe)
We haven’t done a YAIA (“you ask, I answer”) around here for awhile. So, let’s do one! Got questions about any of the stuff we talk about here–unemployment, automation, jobs, full employment, income inequality, budgets, trade, taxes, state policies, minimum wages, growth economics, health care, Europe, financial markets, romance, great music? Submit your questions in [...]
Bob Kuttner’s “Debtors’ Prison”
I was fortunate to be part of a panel yesterday at the Economic Policy Institute commenting on Robert Kuttner’s important new book, “Debtors’ Prison.” Here’s the video of the event though for some reason the sound doesn’t start until about six minutes in—here’s a written summary. Bob also gives a fine summary and I very [...]
Low Demand, Low Inflation
Running off to an EPI event to share my take on Bob Kuttner’s great new book, Debtor’s Prison (I’ll post comments later), but first, check out the tanking rate of inflation, as per the BLS this AM. The index has actually declined over the past two months, and prices are up only 1.1% over the [...]
A Few Lessons from the IRS Scandal
Just back from a rousing debate on CNBC on the IRS scandal (a tough way to start the day but always a pleasure to mix it up with the the Squawk team and the smart and balanced Tony Fratto). Key points, as I see them: –While the pugilistic Joe Kernen was disappointed to hear it, I stand [...]
Full Employment Series, #3: More on the Automation/Unemployment Nexis
Check out this Wonkbook interview with Kevin Drum on the question of whether there’s been an acceleration of labor saving technology in the workplace. I think “maybe.” Drum thinks “definitely.” WaPo: The obvious economic story is that AI reduces the need for human labor, so the demand for it falls and wages fall in turn. [...]
CBO to R’s on Their 37th Attempt to Repeal the ACA
Here’s the link but let me paraphrase: “you guys go ahead and keep gettin’ your crazy on…over here we’re kinda busy doin’ actual work, so can’t help you right now.” In fact, they did look into this before: On balance, CBO and JCT estimated, repealing the ACA would affect direct spending and revenues in ways [...]
Musical Interlude: I Don’t Care!
Everyone in my house is incessantly singing this insouciant song, so be forewarned: it is VERY catchy. I’m linking here to the uncensored version which has a few mild curse words. EG, in splitting with her boyfriend, she says (I think) that she put his sh__ in a bag and threw it down the stairs. [...]
CBO’s New Budget Update: A Fire Hose for Hair-On-Fire Austerions re Near Term Deficits
The good news is that according to CBO’s new budget update, the budget deficit is coming down fast and under their assumptions, will bottom out at 2.1% of GDP in 2015. The debt/GDP ratio begins falling in 2014, from about 76% to 71% in 2018. Just relative to their February projection, CBO’s taking down their [...]
Why Should Any Of These Groups Have Tax-Exempt Status?
Nope, I’m not going to defend the IRS, which appears to have acted in ways wholly inconsistent with their mandate for unbiased investigations into, in this case, whether certain political groups should receive tax-exempt status. It is unclear how high up the chain of command these untoward actions went, but this morning’s news suggests it [...]
Full Employment Series #2: Pushback re Technological Unemployment
OTE’s series on full employment began will this post questioning the role of technology—specifically asking whether there’s been an acceleration in labor-saving capital investment that’s playing a role in the gap between productivity growth and employment growth. Though I think there may be something to this hypothesis, I’m agnostic, and commenters raised many sound objections. [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 5/7 – 5/13
Explaining how the classical economic model interacts with wealth concentration and money in politics in ways that block progressive policy. Pointing to a reminder of why some polling results should be taken with a large grain of salt. Introducing a new series that presents Q&A’s on some aspect of the full employment problem. Up first: [...]
Sequester Watch #4
Those who forget history sequestration are doomed to repeat it. Tracking Sequestration Across the Nation May 7, 2013 BY: NEWS DESK PBS http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/05/the-sequester-its-the-term.html Communities Prepare for Sequester Cuts to Staffing and Social Programs May 7, 2013 PBS NewsHour http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/government_programs/jan-june13/sequester_05-07.html Watch: How the sequester threatens Head Start May 7, 2013 By Aliyah Frumin MSNBC http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/05/07/how-the-sequester-threatens-head-start/ NIH Details Impact of [...]
Markets, Power, and Economic Policy
Here’s an interesting piece worth slogging through on ways in which policy changes implied by traditional economic analysis can skew power in ways that make a lot of people a lot worse off. The prose is a bit dense and opaque, but the point and the many historical examples are interesting and convincing. The authors—Acemoglu and Robinson—are [...]
Complicated Polling Questions: Handle With Care!
Just a brief note on this polling result which struck me as potentially indicative of why you shouldn’t trust polling results on complex issues, in this case, how people feel about whether their state should accept the ACA’s Medicaid expansion. See slide #11, “Few Minds Changed by Argument on Medicaid Expansion.” The poll asks a [...]
Full Employment: Is Labor-Saving Technology Making It Harder to Get There?
Got lots of feedback from this oped in the NYT on the need to consider full employment policies: While the high jobless numbers are partly a legacy of the Great Recession, the fact is that our economy has generated too few jobs for most of the last 30 years and is likely to continue to [...]
Slides from Tonight’s Presentation
Spoke to the very cool and progressive NYC chapter of NASW tonight in the big city. In fact, here’s me and the renowned musician Victor Lesser at Vinnie’s Clam Bar in Little Italy…if you can take the heat, the shrimp with spicy tomato sauce is as good as it gets. Oh, and here are the [...]
The Political Imbalance Facing Unions in America
Harold Meyerson’s piece on the future of labor unions is a worthy read on an important topic (which, ftr, is pretty much always the case with Harold’s commentaries). Harold’s thesis, one that the economist Richard Freeman (dean emeritus of labor economists and one of my heroes) hypothesized about years ago in his book “America Works,” [...]
The Health Care “Market” is So Not a Market
This recent spate of articles about hospitals releasing what they charge for procedures is interesting, predictable, useful, and a timely reminder that our health care system lacks fundamental characteristics of markets, like symmetrical information and consistent pricing. For example, there’s a huge difference between sticker prices and what insurers, especially Medicare, actually pay. Data being [...]
Don’t Leave Home!
Jeez, you go away for the day to warn North Carolinians about snake oil supply-side tax changes that will gut their revenues while shifting the tax burden onto lower-income households, and some candidate for governor proposes to do the same damn thing in your own state! Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II said Tuesday that if elected [...]
Down the Up Staircase
Spent the day in lovely North Carolina where the legislature is contemplating some very bad tax policy. There’s this scourge across the land where a number of states are cutting their income taxes and raising their sales taxes. Bad idea. [Here’s my slides and talk from today: Slides & Talk] First off, you’re shifting your [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 4/30 – 5/6
Looking at pushback against the President’s proposed cap on tax-deferred retirement savings: at what point does a tax incentive become a tax shelter? Considering tax reform: as usual, we’re going about it all wrong. Talkin’ full employment in an op-ed over at the New York Times, and talkin’ taxes at the Milken Global Conference. Jobs [...]
Jared Bernstein’s areas of expertise include federal and state economic and fiscal policies, income inequality and mobility, trends in employment and earnings, international comparisons, and the analysis of financial and housing markets.
