In much recent economic discourse, it has been suggested that we suffer from structural stagnation. That is, some underlying misalignment in resource allocation or distribution is preventing the macro economy from achieving its potential in terms of job growth, GDP growth, labor force participation, productivity, and full employment—not just in recessions, but in recoveries as [...]
So, there’s apparently a little fiscal deal in the air. What’s one to make of it? The WaPo has not much good to say about it—too timid, doesn’t whack the debt enough, etc. The WSJ is a bit more positive. The deal under discussion, as far as I can tell, is to offset about $60 [...]
It’s extremely hard, if not impossible, to identify your favorite melody from your favorite composer, but for me, this one gets awfully close. It’s from Mozart’s Posthorn Serenade, Andante Grazioso. It begins at 1:21, introduced by the flute. Note also the incredibly sublime, yet so simple, descending counterpoint line in the background at 1:32. Then, [...]
One wants to read little into a monthly jobs report and even less–much less–into a day in the equity markets. But I found it interesting that the stock market reacted uncharacteristically positively to today’s solid jobs report. Over at the NYT Economix blog.
OK, there were too many negatives in that title. Let me say it more positively: we positively must extend UI benefits, lest 1.3 million UI recipients lose needed UI benefits in a job market that is improving, but still slack. Here’s the argument: the Senate and the House are working on a budget deal, and [...]
Payrolls rose 203,000 last month and the unemployment rate fell from 7.3% to 7%, the lowest it has been since late 2008, according to this morning’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It looks like a solid report, with job gains in most industries, a falloff in involuntary part-timers, a tick up in [...]
Busy at a conference today, so I must be brief, but the growth in real GDP underwent a large revision for Q3 of this year: up to 3.6% from 2.8%. Sure, that good news, but it warrants a closer look, because it could easily, and mistakenly, get sandwiched into a “green shoots” narrative that would [...]
The Center for American Progress just released a paper I wrote, quite germane to the POTUS’s speech yesterday, about the impact of inequality on growth. It’s called, “The Impact of Inequality on Growth.” I know…how do I come up with such cleverness. You could read the exec sum, but frankly, you’d do much better reading [...]
November jobs report out tomorrow at 8:30am. First impressions from yours truly shortly thereafter (following CNBC hit at 7:30, so busy morning!). Here’s the Bloomberg expectations: Source: Bloomberg Me, I’m at 185,000 for total payrolls, 190,000 for private. See you then.
President Obama gave a strong speech on the economy today, focusing on the long-term problems of inequality and its negative impact on opportunity, mobility, and growth. In terms of diagnosis, it was a speech of great depth. In terms of prescription, it was ambitious. Clearly, he knows this Congress will not legislate his economic agenda. [...]
Lots of action and discussion on the issue of raising the wage floor. The President is likely to discuss the issue at an economics speech later today, and just yesterday the DC Council “unanimously endorsed an $11.50-an-hour minimum wage for the nation’s capital Tuesday, completing a rare act of regional cooperation with the Maryland suburbs and setting [...]
So ruled the judge, paving the way for the largest municipal bankruptcy in our nation’s history. Detroit’s liabilities are estimated at $18 billion with a ‘b.’ The next largest city bankruptcy was San Bernardino, CA, in 2012 with a debt level of $46 million…with an ‘m.’ Another important part of the judge’s ruling was whether [...]
So, nu? There’s maybe a bissel budget deal in the offing? Let me get this straight: –Sen. Murray and Rep. Ryan may actually agree on a budget, i.e., top line discretionary spending numbers, that shaves a bit off of the mindless 2014/15 sequester cuts? –The healthcare.gov website is on the mend—not perfect, but much better. [...]
I’ll be heading to Washington state next week for some events on inequality, poverty, fiscal policy, opportunity gaps, my failed marriage to Lady Gaga, and the like (OK, just made that last bit up to drum up interest). The first is a town hall event on the 11th (get your tickets here) and the second [...]
Over at the NYT Economix blog: outlining some paths to full employment and explaining what the Phillips Curve is, how it has flattened, and why that matters. Highlighting a great NYT piece on the minimum wage, covering all the bases in that aged debate. Illustrating the number of jobs we’ve failed to create by spending so [...]
Over at the NYT Economix blog.
Arin Dube has a great piece in the NYT today on the minimum wage, covering all the bases in that aged debate. Key points: –As the total workforce has become older and better educated, so has the low-wage workforce; the idea that the minimum wage provides a bit of extra spending money for middle-class teenagers [...]
The comment section of my blog appears to be in the midst of a massive spam attack, so if you post a comment and I don’t approve it as quickly as usual, that’s why. I’ll let folks know when the problem is fixed.
Another Thanksgiving. Family, friends, food, and hopefully some time off to sleep off your turkey-induced tryptophan daze. And yes, that pesky brother-in-law who’s especially revved up this year for an aggressive incoming attack well before the gravy boat reaches you. So, let’s see if OTE can once again come to your aid with a bit [...]
Here’s Pope Francis, from today’s WaPo, holding forth on economic policy: “Some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world,” Francis wrote in the papal statement. “This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses [...]
Our 32nd edition of sequester watch features stories about defense cuts, scientific research, and furloughs at a Portsmouth, NH shipyard. There’s also a lot of pick up of a piece by the Center for American Progress on how sequester cuts will be deeper in 2014 than 2015. But then there’s this piece below (“negotiators working [...]
The WaPo presents an important and moving piece today about the plight of low-wage workers, and the anxieties generated by their precarious living standards. The piece features a single man without kids (JS), and my colleague Chuck Marr very effectively amplifies the piece and draws two important policy implications from it, to which I add [...]
Over at the NYT Economix blog…stop the presses: the Phillip’s curve has flattened! What it is and why it matters.
What with all this talk about the new Baker/Bernstein full employment book, including the musical version debuting tonight in DC (OK, it’s chin music, but still…), it seemed an opportune time to remind readers about the extent of the problem, including a new metric on the number of jobs we’ve failed to create by spending [...]