Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

Wherein Both Delong and Fernald Confuse Me

September 22nd, 2014

Not hard to do–and nothing against either of those big brains–but I’m confuzzled by this post from Brad. The question–or at least one of the questions–is a) whether there’s hysteresis in play and b) whether reverse hysteresis can be invoked to repair some of the damage. I’m too rushed to go into explanations of terms… Read more

If the lagging labor force rate doesn’t still embody considerable slack, then why does it increasingly predict wage growth?

September 22nd, 2014

Here’s another salvo in the great labor force slack debate. Summarizing what is now a large and growing canon, a lot of digital ink has been spilled over three measly percentage points. That’s the amount the labor force participation rate (LFPR) is down from its pre-recession peak of about 66%, and the big question is… Read more

Federal Reserve resists hawkish signal, continues to view economy as needing their monetary support…and that’s as it should be.

September 17th, 2014

The Fed is out with their statement and the words “considerable time” live to see another day! That makes sense both substantively—the remaining slack in the economy requires continued support from monetary policy—and rhetorically: the Fed’s forward guidance has correctly emphasized that their decisions will be data driven, and the data continue to point toward… Read more