Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

Real-time estimates of potential GDP: An important, new paper from the Full Employment Project

January 31st, 2018

You ask me, the important DC event of the moment wasn’t last night’s State of the Union address. It’s the far less scrutinized meeting going on at the other end of town, over at the Federal Reserve. Later this afternoon, the Fed’s interest-rate-setting committee will release their monetary policy statement. They are widely expected to… Read more

Links from JB, LLC

January 29th, 2018

Obviously, you want catch up on the latest from JB, LLC (in which I’m a passive investor…bring on that tax cut!…JK!!), so here are some links: –From WaPo, why Mnuchin’s comment on the weak dollar making US exports more competitive was, of course, correct; and why Treasury secretaries should be neutral on currencies, not go… Read more

Hamlet on fiscal space in recessions

January 24th, 2018

Over at WaPo, wherein I argue that a) when we hit the next recession, many policy makers will point to our higher-than-average debt/GDP ratio as evidence that we have too little fiscal space to engage in offset fiscal stimulus, and b) those policy makers will be wrong. I cite an important new paper by Romer/Romer… Read more