Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

Energy prices and real wage trends

November 12th, 2018

I’ve got a piece up in today’s WaPo on some of the economic and social implications of the recent tanking in oil prices. Obviously, such prices jump around, and OPEC is talking about reigning in supplies, so the negative trend could reverse. But the points of my piece are a) low oil may be a… Read more

Does faster wage growth imply passthrough to faster price growth? Not necessarily. (Though see update at the end.)

November 6th, 2018

Introduction As long as we’re sitting here on pins and needles re the midterms, let’s distract ourselves with some analysis of the state of the wage/price passthrough. Though not quite at the level of flipping the House, this is important information regarding inflation, interest rates, and Fed policy. As the job market has improved, wage… Read more

Another strong jobs report yields critical insights

November 2nd, 2018

The nation’s payrolls added 250,000 jobs last month, the unemployment rate held steady at a 49-year low, the closely watched labor force participation rate increased, and year-over-year wage growth broke 3 percent for the first time since 2009. Given that inflation has been running a bit short of 2.5 percent, this means workers are finally… Read more

Wage roundup: Amplifying new work on an important topic.

October 23rd, 2018

There’s been some interesting wage analysis in recent days and the findings are worth collecting and amplifying. Some of what follows is technical, but the punchlines are straightforward: –As I’ve always stressed up in these parts, tight labor markets are especially beneficial to lower-paid workers. –Even so, wage inequality remains alive, well, and connected to… Read more