[Before I jump into analysis of the jobs report, I’m compelled to add a brief note about the violence and deaths in Dallas last night and the deaths of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile earlier this week. I will not try to hold forth on these tragedies other than to say that I’m both indelibly saddened… Read more
I know I always say this but coming off of last month’s extremely weak report, this is an important one. The key word is “bounceback.” Consensus expectations are for 180,000 on payrolls and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.8%. My model says 150K, fwiw, which ain’t much (not being self-deprecating; that holds for… Read more
This Friday morning at 8:30, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the jobs report for June. Those of us who scrutinize such things will be watching closely to see if there’s a bounce-back from last month’s dismal count of 38,000 jobs. The consensus expectation is for 180,000, but last month, the consensus was for… Read more
I pour the morning cup of mud, schlep out to the stoop to get my paper, and open my WSJ to learn that the yield curve is awfully flat (i.e., the difference between the interest rates of bonds of different maturities is low). In fact, the yield on the 10-yr–1.367% yesterday–is the lowest on record…. Read more
Some have asked for me to post these so here ya go.