Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

Jobs day tomorrow

July 7th, 2016

I know I always say this but coming off of last month’s extremely weak report, this is an important one. The key word is “bounceback.” Consensus expectations are for 180,000 on payrolls and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.8%. My model says 150K, fwiw, which ain’t much (not being self-deprecating; that holds for… Read more

Bond yields are just so damn low…what is that telling us?

July 6th, 2016

I pour the morning cup of mud, schlep out to the stoop to get my paper, and open my WSJ to learn that the yield curve is awfully flat (i.e., the difference between the interest rates of bonds of different maturities is low). In fact, the yield on the 10-yr–1.367% yesterday–is the lowest on record…. Read more