I wanted to weigh in briefly on this little dust up re some recent CBO analysis. My colleague Richard Kogan pointed out that while the CBO’s recent long-term budget analysis was as sound as ever, the opening sentence was very wrong: “The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) new report on the budget picture opens by saying,… Read more
I found this to be an important bit of analysis from this AMs NYT. It’s a piece on three reasons why polling is increasingly failing to accurately predict electoral outcomes: the growth of cell phones, lower response rates, and greater difficulty predicting who are the likely voters (i.e., getting turnout wrong). For reasons explained in the… Read more
The figure below shows a series of forecasts by the Federal Reserve for real GDP growth in 2015, with the first forecast made in March 2013 and the last one made a few days ago. Each bar shows the central range of the forecasts by Fed economists, with the average forecast as a dot in… Read more
I testified in the House Budget Committee this AM and have many excellent war stories to share. But no time to do so now. Until then, please read my testimony, to which I devoted some thought. Roughly speaking, the position of the majority R’s is that you should always balance the budget for…I just sat… Read more
Here’s an extended radio interview with Tim Farley on SiriusXM. Not only did he give me the time to get beyond sound bites; he really read the book!