Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

April jobs report: Have we reached full employment??!!

May 5th, 2017

April showers–it’s pouring in DC today (are the skies crying after the health care vote?)–brought job-market flowers, in the form of another solid jobs report. I’ll get to the topline numbers in a sec, but this note is going to be about the fundamental, Talmudic question: is the US job market at full employment? Payrolls… Read more

My jobs analysis slightly delayed today

May 5th, 2017

Going on CNBC this AM at 8 to discuss jobs report until after the 8:30 release so my analysis will be slightly delayed. Consensus is for about 190K on payrolls, unemp to tick up to 4.6%. My forecast comes in a bit lower than consensus and I’ll be watching for an upward revision to March’s… Read more

Inflation, earnings, and spending: a review of recent trends

May 4th, 2017

I need a serious break from the ugliness of DC health-care politics, so let’s talk about three interesting and related economic questions: inflation, labor demand, and consumer spending. First, why does inflation continue to respond so weakly, if at all, to the tightening job market? The traditional response is “because the Phillips curve (the relationship… Read more

Odds and ends: taxes, Kansas, GDP, residual seasonality…

May 1st, 2017

Just a few links folks might find worth perusing. First, a few thoughts about President Trump’s tax “plan:” –I don’t think it makes sense to discuss corporate or business taxation anymore without including pass-through businesses, which comprise most businesses and about half of business income. And Trump’s plan opens up a fat, new loophole in… Read more