Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

Trump 2020 game plan: Fake Laffer, Go Keynes.

August 5th, 2018

I’m genuinely sorry to intrude on your Sunday like this, but this new forecast (no link) from the highly-skilled Goldman Sachs economic research team (GS) has me completely on shpilkes. I’ll make it brief, but not painless. Back when the tax cut passed, this figure, also from GS, previewed an important fiscal fact about to… Read more

July’s Jobs Report: Solid jobs but little wage acceleration

August 3rd, 2018

Summary: Today’s jobs report shows the U.S. labor market remains in a strong groove, with payrolls up 157,000 last month as the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.9 percent. The broader underemployment rate (“U-6”)–a more comprehensive measure of labor market slack–fell to 7.5%, its lowest rate since 2001, thanks to more part-timers finding the full-time… Read more

Prepping for Friday: What’s trend GDP growth?

July 22nd, 2018

This Friday morning at 8:30, we’ll see the first estimate of GDP for 2018Q2. Various trackers have it coming in at or above 4% (that’s the real, annualized quarterly growth rate). It’s that ballpark correct, as I expect it is—the trackers use much of the same incoming data as BEA—it will be a big political… Read more

Responding to questions re my wage oped.

July 19th, 2018

I’ve got a piece in the NYT on the cyclical, and more importantly, structural factors, that have long suppressed real wage gains. I’ve gotten many interesting responses, some of which I’ll address here. Inflation: As I stressed in the piece, the ups and downs in price movements have been instrumental in recent years. A lot… Read more