Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

See What I Mean?

June 10th, 2011

Just a quick follow up to the slow-growth post from last night. The figure below shows an unemployment rate forecast, kindly provided by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. Based on the type of relations I presented last night, this forecast clearly presumes above trend GDP growth, which in turn assumes current headwinds are largely temporary. … Read more

Growth, Sure…But How Much?

June 9th, 2011

Jackie Calmes had a slightly hopeful piece in the NYT today, noting how policy makers are recognizing that they might need to pivot a bit from the budget deficit to the jobs deficit: “Recent signs that the economic recovery is flagging have introduced a new tension into the bipartisan budget negotiations, giving rise to calls… Read more

But Dad…The Bond Market Said I Could!

June 9th, 2011

The bond market is like the proverbial mama in the old adage, “If mama’s not happy, then nobody’s happy.” Ever since the Clinton years, when the bond vigilantes—investors who would demand crippling high returns if we failed to obey them—allegedly ruled, more policy than you’d like to think is deeply influenced by warnings of how… Read more