Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

Prepping for Friday: What’s trend GDP growth?

July 22nd, 2018

This Friday morning at 8:30, we’ll see the first estimate of GDP for 2018Q2. Various trackers have it coming in at or above 4% (that’s the real, annualized quarterly growth rate). It’s that ballpark correct, as I expect it is—the trackers use much of the same incoming data as BEA—it will be a big political… Read more

Responding to questions re my wage oped.

July 19th, 2018

I’ve got a piece in the NYT on the cyclical, and more importantly, structural factors, that have long suppressed real wage gains. I’ve gotten many interesting responses, some of which I’ll address here. Inflation: As I stressed in the piece, the ups and downs in price movements have been instrumental in recent years. A lot… Read more

Team Trump’s phony poverty argument, GDP growth v. chaos, and a little e.g. of where an FTT would come in handy.

July 17th, 2018

First, Trump’s Council of Economic Adviser abuses data and logic to conclude that work requirements would help poor people. Over at WaPo. Next, I will not stray from my lane and comment on what everybody’s thinking about today: the summit from Hel…sinki. I will share this Steven Colbert clip, to which I’ve nothing to add…. Read more

Lynx, trade politics, a super swingin’ slice of Kelly Roll, and a bit of pop psychology re JOMO

July 12th, 2018

Trade policy has been really interesting of late. I get into the economics of what I think is going on here and here. The first piece makes the argument that Trump is fruitlessly and fecklessly trying unscramble the globalization omelet. The second takes on–with help from a great, new Susan Houseman paper–the incorrect but pervasive… Read more