I pour the morning cup of mud, schlep out to the stoop to get my paper, and open my WSJ to learn that the yield curve is awfully flat (i.e., the difference between the interest rates of bonds of different maturities is low). In fact, the yield on the 10-yr–1.367% yesterday–is the lowest on record…. Read more
I know of two policy channels through which to push back on recessions: monetary and fiscal. As I discuss in today’s WaPo, though who knows when the next downturn hits, we’re not ready. Monetary policy–ie, the Fed’s main tool: its Fed funds rate (ffr)–is very unlikely to have time to reload. I think this is… Read more
As I discuss in today’s WaPo, Brexit was a function of many factors: –PM David Cameron’s reckless, opportunistic political gambit: calling for the referendum back in 2013 to assuage his far right Euro-skeptics in time for the upcoming election. –Strong anti-immigration and anti-globalization sentiments. The unleashed xenophobia, surely linked to the refugee crisis, is to… Read more
I’ve apparently managed to confuse some people in my post yesterday about federal government spending and taxing as a share of the economy. Though to be fair to myself, always a good practice, it looks to me like those people a) don’t read my stuff (unforgivable!), or b) don’t want to face historical facts. First,… Read more
Well, there’s the stock market and there’s the real economy. They’re related but they’re not the same thing. Here’s why. To be clear, nobody knows when the next recession will hit, so I’m decidedly not saying all clear, happy-dappy! To the contrary, I strongly urge us to be ready for the worst.