…even with recent, significant improvements in the fiscal picture, we are not out of the fiscal woods. In this biz, you need to be a CDSH—cyclical dove, structural hawk—and in that regard, the deficit is coming down to fast now when the sluggish recovery still needs fiscal support and going up later when it shouldn’t [...]
Jun 10, 2013 | Categories: Deficits, Debt and Taxes, New Posts, Social Security | 2 Comments »
I told you I’d link to these–my CBPP colleagues’ analyses of the Trustees reports on Soc Sec and Mcare–and here they are. Paul’s Medicare analysis echoes some of my earlier points regarding the positive impact of health reform on the Medicare’s finances, and he also pre-empts some potential silliness re claims of “bankruptcy!” The projected insolvency [...]
May 31, 2013 | Categories: Health Care, New Posts, Social Security | 2 Comments »
A rousing debate on the social insurance cuts proposed by the President. One thing: the clock ran out as Joe Antos and I were squabbling about whether cuts to Medicare, largely on the delivery side–bundled payments, bargaining for lower drug costs, etc.–were in the President’s budget. I said yes, he said no. I still say [...]
Apr 11, 2013 | Categories: Health Care, New Posts, Social Security | 3 Comments »
The President’s offer to cut spending on Medicare and Social Security is confusing some conservatives. In the past, they’ve of course labeled such cuts a sign of Seriousness but his budget caught them off balance. And yes, that’s very weird because he’s had the Medicare cuts in earlier budgets and the Social Security cut (chained CPI) [...]
Apr 11, 2013 | Categories: New Posts, Politics, Social Security | 8 Comments »
Up early, amply caffeinated, and already mixed it up with Joe Kernan on CNBC on the President’s budget due out later today, though details are trickling out. Here are the White House’s bullets: –Creates jobs by responsibly paying for investments in education, manufacturing, clean energy, infrastructure, and small business. –Includes $1.8 trillion of additional deficit [...]
Apr 10, 2013 | Categories: Deficits, Debt and Taxes, Fiscal Policy, Jobs, New Posts, Politics, Social Security, Tax Policy | 8 Comments »
A bit of fiscal filosophy before running up to NYC for meetings and TV tomorrow. Rep Paul Ryan has described his budget as a “vision document.” A very dark vision, IMHO. But OK, I can see where instead of a more pragmatic set of ideas that might see the light of day, he’s laying out [...]
Apr 09, 2013 | Categories: New Posts, Politics, Social Security | 13 Comments »
My CBPP colleague Bob Greenstein provides an important warning here about how the President’s entry in the current budget negotiations risks rightward drift. The key point: the compromise position must NOT be taken as a new pole staking out one side in the debate. It must be taken as what it is…a compromise between existing [...]
Apr 08, 2013 | Categories: Deficits, Debt and Taxes, New Posts, Social Security | 11 Comments »
Getting ready to talk jobs on CNBC so just a brief note on the big news out this AM on the President’s budget, due on next week. President Obama next week will take the political risk of formally proposing cuts to Social Security and Medicare in his annual budget in an effort to demonstrate his [...]
Apr 05, 2013 | Categories: Fiscal Policy, New Posts, Politics, Social Security | 9 Comments »
Really impressive piece of journalism this AM from Mike Fletcher at the WaPo about the differences in life expectancy between older persons of widely different economic means. The figure below tells the story, showing the evolution of differences in life expectancy between two Florida counties, one with income levels twice the other. The differences are [...]
Mar 11, 2013 | Categories: New Posts, Social Security | 7 Comments »
As someone who works with numbers a lot, I find averages to be tremendously helpful. I’d be lost without them.* But there’s one area where averages have been misleadingly used of late, an area where the stakes are extremely high—this is far from academic. I’m not exaggerating when I tell you that if we don’t [...]
Mar 06, 2013 | Categories: Fiscal Policy, Health Care, New Posts, Politics, Social Security, Tax Policy | 11 Comments »
Had a rousing debate on the Kudlow show last night with Larry and Jimmy Pethokoukis (aka Jimmy P) haranguing me about makers/takers. Jimmy went on a rant about all the fakers on the Social Security Disability rolls, prompting me to inject some facts from my CBPP colleague Kathy Ruffing about the factors actually responsible for [...]
Jan 26, 2013 | Categories: New Posts, Social Security | 21 Comments »
I thought the President gave a strong and progressive second inaugural speech today, one that resonantly underscored the most important themes he’s been promulgating since before anyone even knew who he was. What I don’t see so clearly is the path that goes from our budget constraints to meeting the aspirations the President articulated today. [...]
Jan 21, 2013 | Categories: Education, Fiscal Policy, Health Care, Inequality, New Posts, Politics, Social Security | 1 Comment »
A couple of weeks ago, the NYT—somewhat weirdly, I thought—published a full-page spread by a couple of analysts arguing that the Social Security Administration was underestimating longevity, implying that the program’s funding is in worse shape than the SSA officials are telling us. There were, however, serious flaws in the analysis, leading my colleague Paul Van [...]
Jan 18, 2013 | Categories: New Posts, Social Security | 4 Comments »
One of the more important bits of analysis we’ve done lately here at CBPP is this piece by Richard Kogan on what more it would take, given tax increases and spending cuts legislated thus far, to stabilize the debt over the next decade. The President himself underscored the punch line of the paper in his [...]
Jan 15, 2013 | Categories: Fiscal Policy, Health Care, Jobs, New Posts, Politics, Social Security | 8 Comments »
Important piece by Mike Fletcher in this AMs WaPo that strongly amplifies points I stressed here the other day. The Post reports that more workers, financially stressed by cash flows that fall short of their family budgets, are turning to early withdrawals from their 401(k)’s: More than one in four American workers with 401(k) and [...]
Jan 15, 2013 | Categories: New Posts, Social Security, The Papers | 8 Comments »
Recall this post on how the loss of defined benefit pensions underscores the need to protect our national public defined-benefit pension program: Social Security. Fellow blogger Kevin Drum responds to the post with this interesting look at income trends of older relative to younger households showing the older cohort to be doing much better in [...]
Jan 11, 2013 | Categories: Housing, Income, New Posts, Social Security | 5 Comments »
Take a look at this useful set of pictures from the BLS on the not-very-healthful status of defined benefit (DB) private pension plans in America today (DB pensions provide guaranteed, periodic payments in retirement). A quick glance led me to believe that these data points should be a front-and-center defense against those who would cut [...]
Jan 09, 2013 | Categories: New Posts, Social Security, Trade/Foreign Policy | 9 Comments »
A number of folks in recent weeks have question or criticized my views, both here at OTE and on TV, regarding endorsing spending cuts, including some targeted at the social insurance programs Medicare and Social Security. So let me expand a bit on those views and what I believe is a balanced take on these [...]
Dec 29, 2012 | Categories: Health Care, New Posts, Social Security, Tax Policy | 50 Comments »
Though the actual negotiators are presumably busy assembling their new Christmas presents—I spent two hours yesterday getting a new wireless printer to work (see note*)—some of us are still arguing about various facets of the fiscal cliff, in particular, the chained-CPI (details as to what this is about and CBPP’s view here). Here’s a rough [...]
Dec 26, 2012 | Categories: Fiscal Policy, Inequality, New Posts, Politics, Social Security | 21 Comments »
…and not just because they’re ideological and lack flexibility or the will to compromise, but because they tend not to have specific ideas. And there’s a reason for that. I promised myself I wasn’t going to waste our time with fiscal cliff updates unless I have some concrete information, so this will be short. It [...]
Dec 14, 2012 | Categories: Deficits, Debt and Taxes, Fiscal Policy, Health Care, New Posts, Politics, Social Security, Tax Policy | 5 Comments »
Cutting right to the chase, the cliff is almost upon us, and deciding big changes in social insurance programs—Medicare and Social Security, in particular—in this climate makes no sense. That includes both raising the Medicare eligibility age and the move to a chained CPI, which by dint of growing more slowly, would reduce Social Security [...]
Dec 09, 2012 | Categories: Fiscal Policy, Health Care, New Posts, Social Security | 4 Comments »
[Just did a spot on this with Chris Matthews and Joan Walsh--both of whom I thought made a lot of sense on the issue..] I’m glad that fiscal cliff negotiations have produced some mellifluous sounds from hardliners, as in Rep Boehner and Sen McConnell recognizing the need for new revenues in the deal. But really, [...]
Nov 21, 2012 | Categories: Health Care, Jobs, New Posts, Poverty, Recession/Stimulus, Social Security | 5 Comments »
Here’s what I hope is a simple and straightforward way to think about what’s at stake in this election and the differences between the tickets. We face not one, but four deficits: –budget deficit –jobs deficit –investment deficit –security deficit Budget Deficit: That the current budget path is unsustainable is well understood by most voters. [...]
Oct 11, 2012 | Categories: Deficits, Debt and Taxes, Economic Growth, Education, Fiscal Policy, Health Care, Housing, Income, Inequality, Jobs, New Posts, Recession/Stimulus, Social Security, Tax Policy | 3 Comments »
Well, it took a while, and an awfully circuitous route, but we’re finally getting back to the national debate we need to have, the one about the role of government. Unfortunately, it’s taken a terribly misguided, albeit revealing turn towards “makers versus takers.” What’s misguided about it? It misses the dynamics of real lives in [...]
Sep 20, 2012 | Categories: Economic Growth, Education, Financial Markets, Fiscal Policy, Health Care, New Posts, Recession/Stimulus, Social Security, Tax Policy | 10 Comments »
Jared Bernstein’s areas of expertise include federal and state economic and fiscal policies, income inequality and mobility, trends in employment and earnings, international comparisons, and the analysis of financial and housing markets.
