Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 6/11 – 6/17
Wondering, along with Paul K, if this is really a realistic time for a “grand bargain” budget deal. Reviving an important graph from Fed Reserve governor Janet Yellen showing the current and historical impact on real GDP of fiscal stimulus or drag in recoveries. Illustrating the corrosive linkage between higher inequality and diminished opportunity. Questioning whether [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 6/4 – 6/10
Explaining where a Washington Post editorial on deficit delusion went badly wrong. On the May employment report: previewing the report on Jobs Day Eve, noting that the report shows a game of high-stakes musical chairs, showing that public sector jobs don’t crowd out private sector ones. On the weekend broadsheets: Parts I and II on [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 5/29 – 6/3
Highlighting four trends in the economic recovery — two of which you don’t see enough. Explaining why a long critique of Chinese expansionary economics in the NYT seems pretty misguided. On the recently released Medicare and Social Security trustees’ reports: noting that the Medicare report shows lower cost growth is helping Medicare financing, pointing to CBPP analyses [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 5/21 – 5/28
Adding two points [sic--as in 2% plus 2 points=4%; terrible nerd humor] to the 4%-inflation-target discussion started by the economist Lawrence Ball. Discussing the Keystone pipeline and the tar sands oil market. Looking at S&P growth during President Obama’s time in office: it’s up 105%. Highlighting perverse outcomes of state Medicaid exemptions under the Supreme Court’s [...]
OTE Weekly Wrap-Up, 5/14 – 5/20
Perusing the Sunday papers: a NYT dialogue based off of my full employment op-ed, and a piece on the Cincinnati IRS office. Noting that the Congressional Budget Office says the President’s debt path is even lower than the White House’s own estimate. Putting out a call for submissions: got questions? Post them in the comments section of this [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 5/7 – 5/13
Explaining how the classical economic model interacts with wealth concentration and money in politics in ways that block progressive policy. Pointing to a reminder of why some polling results should be taken with a large grain of salt. Introducing a new series that presents Q&A’s on some aspect of the full employment problem. Up first: [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 4/30 – 5/6
Looking at pushback against the President’s proposed cap on tax-deferred retirement savings: at what point does a tax incentive become a tax shelter? Considering tax reform: as usual, we’re going about it all wrong. Talkin’ full employment in an op-ed over at the New York Times, and talkin’ taxes at the Milken Global Conference. Jobs [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 4/23 – 4/29
Looking at what’s happening in the debt debate: I know it’s more complicated than a grad student found some mistakes in a spreadsheet and the spell that had bewitched the nation was broken — but that’s kinda what seems to be happening. Highlighting a worthwhile essay on education, wealth, and inequality. Considering the FAA sequester [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 4/16 – 4/22
On the Reinhart & Rogoff dustup: giving an initial reaction, explaining the roles of context and political economy in the debt debate, raising a question of economic epistemology, and asking if more peer reviewing is the answer. Arguing that getting back to full employment — not debt, deficits, sequester, debt ceilings — is what we [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 4/9 – 4/15
Tax day commentary, with a link to a highly progressive video game! Previewing the President’s budget and highlighting some important snippets from the proposal. Looking at my Center on Budget and Policy Priorities colleague Bob Greenstein’s important warning about how the President’s entry in the current budget negotiations risks rightward drift. Delving into a bit [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 4/2 – 4/8
March jobs roundup: previewing the numbers on jobs day eve, summarizing my first reactions, and arguing that we’re lacking a job growth trend. Illustrating an inefficient tax break, courtesy of my CBPP colleague Will Fischer’s work on the mortgage interest deduction. Recapping a rousing and often substantive debate on the minimum wage sponsored by the group Intelligence [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 3/26 – 4/1
Highlighting a surprising turnabout in economic policy announced by Republican leadership (…in honor of April Fools’ Day!) Delving into the President’s preschool proposal: what it is and what it isn’t. Considering corporate tax reform: why is it so hard? Recapping a discussion about inequality, mobility, and growth from PBS’s “Need To Know.” Looking at David Stockman’s [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 3/11 – 3/25
On the ongoing budget madness: noting that the Ryan budget looks a lot like the platform he and Gov Romney ran on, and lost on, last year; arguing that these budgets have little to do with the actual agreements that determine actual revenues, outlays, and policies; joining the chorus of voices in support of Congressional Progressive Caucus’ budget; and condensing some [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 3/5 – 3/11
February jobs day roundup: listing some main takeaways, and delving deeper into the report to look at labor force participation and weekly earnings. Highlighting an impressive piece of journalism from Mike Fletcher at the WaPo about the differences in life expectancy between older persons of widely different economic means. Looking at who benefits from the climbing US stock [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 2/26 – 3/4
Pointing to some smart talk on myths concerning the sequester. Laying out three insights on the sequester: for one, it was supposed to be like a sword of Damocles — whoops. Discussing why the sequester is nuts, and I refuse to treat it as some kind of new normal. Talking to my friend and Center [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 2/19 – 2/25
Considering the macro and micro impacts of impending sequestration. Thinking about the U.S. tax system as it turns 100. Talking about the recent history of the housing bust and economic recovery with Jim Parrott, former WH senior advisor for housing policy. Setting the record straight on the silly conservative talking point that the word “sequester” must [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 2/11 – 2/18
On minimum wage: noting President Obama’s proposal in the SOTU, outlining the classic arguments on both sides of the debate, showing that the $9 proposed by the White House is right in line with past increases (i.e., if you take the natural logarithms) and explaining why certain criticisms of the increase are misguided. Considering the President’s pre-k [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 2/5 – 2/11
Previewing what I’ll be listening for in tomorrow night’s State of the Union speech. Considering whether it’s really important to stabilize the public debt, and explaining the Cyclical Dove and a Structural Hawk (CDSH) stance. Noting that the pace at which the government is deleveraging (reducing deficits) is too fast relative to the household sector getting back in [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 1/29 – 2/4
Analyzing the January jobs report, and rounding up some good (and not so good) analysis of the data. Showing that a college degree doesn’t inoculate you from the challenges of today’s job market. Considering the argument that the Federal Reserve could do more than they’re already doing to stimulate growth. Thinking about state (income, corporate, [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 1/23 – 1/28
Considering what we’d do if we wanted to attack inequality instead of deficits. Explaining why the makers/takers frame is factually wrong, not to mention mean-spirited and divisive. Hoping that the fire in the hair of the deficit hysterions has been extinguished. Noting that when it comes to cuts, we’ve already cut government spending by $1.5 [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 1/15 – 1/22
Considering the President’s second inaugural speech — and the mismatch between aspirations and budgets in politics. An inequality roundup: highlighting the debate over what’s driving inequality, delving into whether inequality stifles or promotes growth, and illustrating the inequality staircase. Noting that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is up and running and implement cool stuff, and [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 1/7 – 1/14
Analyzing Okun’s rule about the relationship between output gaps, the unemployment rate, and real wages. Considering why protecting Social Security is so important, and delving into the important relationship between Social Security, private pensions, and retirement preparedness. Highlighting an underappreciated difference between our economy and those of other advanced economies: we consume a considerably larger share of our output than they [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 12/27 – 1/6 (Pre- and Post-Fiscal Cliff Edition)
What went on at OTE during the lead-up to, and in the wake of, the fiscal cliff? Pre-cliff: Highlighting a few irreverent cliff notes, including a photo of my very own “Come Together” latte; considering one of many big fiscal cliff meetings, which ended with no white smoke from the White House chimney; arguing that [...]
Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE Summary, 12/17 – 12/26
Rounding up some economic views that served us poorly in 2012. Laying out some more polemics on the chained CPI: a rough typology/continuum of the positions on this policy change. Asking why the Fed is the only game in town targeting unemployment, and delving deeper to explain why it would be weird if they weren’t. Considering [...]
Jared Bernstein’s areas of expertise include federal and state economic and fiscal policies, income inequality and mobility, trends in employment and earnings, international comparisons, and the analysis of financial and housing markets.
