Comments on: Cliff Dive: What the Heck Happens Now?

By: Auros

Auros — Sat, 22 Dec 2012 06:56:24 +0000

“I continue to not understand how voting to extend some tax decreases counts as voting for a tax increase.”

So now we know that you are not crazy enough to be a member of the modern Conservative Movement.

By: Scott Monje

Scott Monje — Sat, 22 Dec 2012 06:03:20 +0000

“That leverage was there because the WH was willing to compromise in the interest of avoiding the cliff. Once we go over, it’s gone.”

I don’t know. Before the cliff or after, nothing can happen unless the House votes for it, so it’s hard to say they have no influence. (No competence, sure, but that’s another matter.)

By: jonathan

jonathan — Sat, 22 Dec 2012 02:00:48 +0000

The inability of the House to bring even this to a vote demonstrates the power of individual incentives.

If you’re a House GOP member, your choice was a symbolic vote to show you care about the deficit or doing nothing. What is the value to you of the symbolic vote? Less blame? You can point at the Democrats and say “they did nothing and we did”. This vote has a cost: it can be used against you in your primary campaign because you voted to raise taxes and the debt ceiling, etc. The symbolic vote’s value has to outweigh that cost.

But you have material information coming in 10 days. After 1/1, a second game round begins. That decreases the value of a symbolic vote now because it makes the sheer symbolism more obvious: you voted to raise taxes, etc. knowing you wouldn’t get a deal. So why do it?

By: foosion

foosion — Sat, 22 Dec 2012 01:39:16 +0000

I continue to not understand how voting to extend some tax decreases counts as voting for a tax increase. How is voting to continue the current income tax rates for income under $250,000 voting for an increase?

Hard to see how anything passes the House other than by a combination of some Rs and some Ds.

It would be great to see Obama take back $400,000 and chained CPI, but I’m not holding my breath.

As to Obama holding the line on the debt ceiling, history has not been kind to the belief that Obama will hold any such line.