Paul K’s got a fine post up showing the debt implications of different budget plans as scored by the CRFB. But he made his graphic before any of the budget crunchers could incorporate new numbers from the Tax Policy Center on the impact of Gov Romney’s plan to further cut personal tax rates by 20% and repeal the AMT, all of which adds about $3 trillion to the cumulative deficit by 2021. And all of this, of course, is on top of the permanent extension of all the Bush tax cuts (that’s already reflected in Paul K’s graph).
Anyway, Paul cites the CFRB number to show that Gov Romney’s debt-to-GDP ratio would be 86% in 2021, compared to the President’s budget which has that ratio at 77% that year. But if you add in the TPC’s impact of these new cuts, Romney goes up to 99%.
Unless you want to invoke the magic of “dynamic scoring” (as in: “my tax cuts will unleash scads of growth that’s just waiting to happen!”) or the vagaries of “unspecified spending cuts and the closing of tax breaks to be named later,” there’s just no other way to shuffle this deck. We cannot both massively cut tax revenues and achieve a sustainable budget outlook.
Sources: OMB, CFRB, TPC, my calculations