Jobs Day Tomorrow!

March 6th, 2014 at 10:56 am

And like moth-to-flame, I rev up the hamsters, blindfold the chimp, and forecast the payroll numbers.  My model spits out 140k for total payrolls and 150k for private, so I’m a bit below the consensus shown below.  As always, I predict the unemp rate to tick up, down, or sideways.

Slightly more seriously, here’s a list of some of the economic headwinds and tailwinds in play right now vis-a-vis job creation.  Whether they break through the low signal-to-noise ratio of the monthly employment numbers is another question.

Headwinds: downward revision to Q4 GDP; deceleration in underlying trend of job growth, unusually crappy weather–enough already, winter! (it’s a factor in much of the recent data, but I wouldn’t overdo it–you can see hints of trend deceleration in sectors less affected by the weather); housing hiccup; weak ADP, weakening currencies in Asia could restrain our exports going forward, stagnant wage growth for many (that’s important), Ukraine/geopolitical nervousness.

Tailwinds: energy sector, financial markets, “less bad” fiscal policy, steady-as-she-goes Fed, better credit access (though still some flow issues), improved trade balance, household balance sheets back in decent shape, Europe a bit stronger, EM capital outflows dissipating.

What’d I miss, commenters?

bberg_3_14

Source: Bloomberg

 

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8 comments in reply to "Jobs Day Tomorrow!"

  1. Perplexed says:

    -“What’d I miss, commenters?”

    Oh, just a couple of “minor” things like:
    1. Rents diverting substantial amounts of national income from “spenders” to “savers;”
    2. Government granted monopolies keeping prices from falling and competitors from entering the market and driving prices down and quality up, thereby preventing consumers from increasing demand for other products even without any increase in their income;
    3. Tax preferences diverting National income into the hands of private individuals and corporations with no budget accountability;
    4. Undercutting of workers power by exempting their labor from anti-trust protections and preventing them from “pooling their risk” of unemployment.
    5. Allowing money to purchase political representation resulting in laws and trade policies that benefit the purchasers of that representation at a cost to everyone else;
    6. Free insurance for Too Big to Fail Banks and other financial actors that drives down competition in the banking sector at a huge cost to the public.
    7. Erosion of optimal marginal tax rates to benefit the wealthy at a huge cost to investment in public goods like education and infrastructure.

    Other than that, pretty well covered! Why would anyone think that workers would stand a chance in such an environment?


    • Jared Bernstein says:

      Many good ones, but your list made me mindful of the difference between high frequency and low frequency factors that could influence the monthly numbers. Your stuff is mostly low-frequency–on-going structural forces that shape longer term trends. For monthly and quarterly guess work, you want to think more about short-term perturbations in the force!


      • SeattleAlex says:

        …and JB with the rare liberal-on-liberal SLAM! You guys both left out the tailwind from the ‘Hawks winning the Super Bowl. We’re clearly boosting the economy with our victory parades and widespread consumer purchasing of championship gear.


        • Jared Bernstein says:

          Um, with respect, don’t you guys need to start focusing on something else up there in the NW? Superbowl’s over, my man…What else you got?

          (Actually, one of the best things going in Seattle is that little crepe place right outside the convention center. They’ll make you a fresh crepe filled with pears and goat cheese that was definitely the best thing I’ve ever tasted.)


          • SeattleAlex says:

            Rain…I’m afraid we only have rain. That victory is the only things that is keeping us sane until the beauty that is Seattle Summer arrives my friend. Well that and the endless foodie joints you touched upon. Also one can pretend that the SuperSonics are only temporarily playing all of their home games in Oklahoma City as I do.


        • Perplexed says:

          -“…and JB with the rare liberal-on-liberal SLAM!”
          Jared may be responding to the developing shortage of true conservatives to go after:
          http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/06/why-most-conservatives-are-secretly-liberals/

          -“…tailwind from the ‘Hawks winning the Super Bowl”
          We all realize its been a while for Seattle and that congrats. are due, but “tailwind”? Really?


  2. Robert Buttons says:

    Tailwinds: Potentially manufactured data. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101210063

    Headwinds: The rest of our economy.


  3. D. C. Sessions says:

    What’d I miss, commenters?

    How about the fact that half of the country has not only had winter gone for months but is now winding up spring and heading for summer? We’re headed for another year of killer drought, but if there’s one thing we don’t need to worry about, it’s snow. There isn’t any — even in the high Sierras.


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