I’m guessing 195K for total payrolls and 190K for private so a bit below consensus which is at, last I checked, around 215K for both. That’s a deceleration from last month, though we’ll see revisions in the AM.
A few other thoughts in advance of the numbers with the caveat: really…who the h-e-double-hockey-sticks knows??
–I suspect the unemployment rate will tick up as the labor force will bounce back a bit from last month’s drop. I’d guess 6.4% on the jobless rate, but wouldn’t be surprised by 6.5%.
–Certainly there’ve been headwinds–GDP of course weak in Q1 but not as weak as printed number (-1%); some widening of the trade deficit has probably hurt manufacturers; housing’s taking a pretty clear pause in less affluent parts of the country; wage growth still weak for most folks.
–On the plus side, a lot less fiscal drag coming out of DC, and some evidence that health care spending associated with the ACA has helped boost consumer spending a bit.
–Also, low productivity growth–obviously problematic in the longer term–could translate into more near term employment as firms would need more workers to meet a given level of demand.
I’ll be on CNBC when the numbers come out at 8:30AM so see you then!