Jobs Day Tomorrow!

June 5th, 2014 at 5:34 pm

I’m guessing 195K for total payrolls and 190K for private so a bit below consensus which is at, last I checked, around 215K for both.  That’s a deceleration from last month, though we’ll see revisions in the AM.

A few other thoughts in advance of the numbers with the caveat: really…who the h-e-double-hockey-sticks knows??

–I suspect the unemployment rate will tick up as the labor force will bounce back a bit from last month’s drop.  I’d guess 6.4% on the jobless rate, but wouldn’t be surprised by 6.5%.

–Certainly there’ve been headwinds–GDP of course weak in Q1 but not as weak as printed number (-1%); some widening of the trade deficit has probably hurt manufacturers; housing’s taking a pretty clear pause in less affluent parts of the country; wage growth still weak for most folks.

–On the plus side, a lot less fiscal drag coming out of DC, and some evidence that health care spending associated with the ACA has helped boost consumer spending a bit.

–Also, low productivity growth–obviously problematic in the longer term–could translate into more near term employment as firms would need more workers to meet a given level of demand.

I’ll be on CNBC when the numbers come out at 8:30AM so see you then!

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3 comments in reply to "Jobs Day Tomorrow!"

  1. Nathan J. Kerr says:

    It is no secret that with the Democrat party controlling the Senate and the White House that more liberal policies extolled by yourself, Krugman, Baker et al. have been the broad economic policy of the land. It is no secret that like Bush’s, Reagan’s, etc. policies never fully reached fruition in our perpetually divided government, Obama’s did not either. But generally, they hold the responsibility based on their ideology. With more progressive policies like Sarbanes-Oxley (2002), Dodd-Frank (2009 and 2010), and the Affordable Care Act in addition to non-enforcement of certain immigration laws coupled with marked increase of wealth redistribution through extended unemployment (recently ended), SNAP, and Medicaid expansion- why then is the economy in such doldrums?

    Again, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, W. Bush, and most modern day presidents had divided government so this cannot be the excuse especially with Dodd- Frank, TARP, expansions of welfare etc. being enacted which are big expansions and should have had some impact- what gives?


  2. Robert Buttons says:

    The various and sundry wall st economists have their predictions out there and they cover 9 standard deviations!!! We can’t predict QoQ GDP within an order of magnitude and jobs predictions are 9 SD apart. Is there any wonder I think econometrics is hogwash?


    • Larry Signor says:

      RB, If you have this data, why are you so stingy with the links to it? It would be easier to believe your story if you supplied sources for your data. Larry.


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