Jobs Preamble

July 8th, 2011 at 7:36 am

I don’t know what you’re up to, but I’m up early prepping for the jobs report that comes out at 8:30 this morning.

It’s good to be talking about jobs again, and not debt.  Imagine, just for fun, how the debate would look and feel if you could substitute the words “jobs” and “unemployment” every time a policy maker said “debt” or “deficits.”

The President would be out there every day saying, “Both parties must come together to solve our budget JOBS deficit.  All debt UNEMPLOYMENT reduction ideas must be on the table!”

Anyway…not much point in getting into numbers that are due out in an hour…we at CBPP will have a lot to say when the report is out.

But a few things to keep in mind.  The big question is how anomalous was the weak May report.  One month does not a trend make but two months begins to do so.  Most of us expect June to be better—the consensus is for about 120K on payrolls and for the unemployment rate to maybe come down a tenth, to 9%.

That’s based largely on nothing much deeper than May being worse than expected (so you figure you get a bounce back in June) and some letting up of headwinds from Japan supply disruptions, oil prices, and Euro debt.

But even if we get a decent pop above expectations—say 150K on payrolls—that’s still an average monthly rate of 145K for the quarter (2011Q2, ignoring revisions to April and May, which will also be out this AM).

So still more of a slog than a boom, but what’s most important is a solid improvement over May’s weak report.  Stay tuned!

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4 comments in reply to "Jobs Preamble"

  1. Peter Korman says:

    Jared:

    Jobs follow invested capital. Every job requires an investment of capital. This administration and the last congress have done much to accelerate the outflows of capital from the U.S. Solutions? Try making regulations and tax codes less complex. Try encouraging repatriation of capital. Try policies that lower the real and marginal costs of human resources, energy, and capital. Try lowering compliance costs for small to mid-size businesses. Stop threatening changes and new codes. Of course, if those making these decisions have never risked and managed their own capital in a private venture, they would not understand any of this.

    Good luck going forward.


  2. Alessandro Rosa says:

    When are the Democrats going to drop the gloves, start hitting the Republicans below the belt and STATE THE OBVIOUS!!!!

    We have had almost a decade of lower taxes and yet the US economy has contracted while jobs have disappeared faster than pigs at a barbecue cookoff. Lower taxes may have worked as a stimulus in the past, but that was when Corporations and Business Leaders actually had an interest in the success and well-being of America and however secondarily, the American worker; when they had an attachment to their communities; when they saw their employees as assets and a part of the family instead of just an inconvenient expense.

    This crop of MBA-trained executives have no soul and no interest in the well-being of our country, only in their portfolios and the size of their mansions in gated communities. When business leaders started off in the mailroom and worked their way up to the boardroom, they had an emotional connection to the people they worked with and their communities. But in an era where your qualifications to lead are the result of an acronym after your name and you build your career on how many jobs you were able to outsource to the lowest waged corners of the world capable of doing a job, Government needs to take the reigns, invest in America and redistribute the wealth. When the market mechanism is broken, it is the responsibility of the society and their agent, the government to step in and right the wrong direction.

    Everyone is fond of saying we are going to become the “next Greece” these days, but my greatest fear is that we are going to become the next Venezuela circa 1990′s where you had the ultra rich living in walled off and armed guarded communities and then the abject poor, with no middle. It still boggles my mind that so many Americans have bought into the Republican ideas which amount to the equivalent of the Feudal System in Europe during the middle ages. We are being held hostage by the Aristocracy in this country and we are absolutely blind to the fact because we live in the fog of the American Dream and think that we will step into that rarefied air and need to protect the moneyed class so that when we get their we will be protected too. Well the general public needs a wake up call. You are at best middle class, and if you have any hope for your children and grandchildren to remain there and not slip into poverty, then you better start letting the Democrats redistribute the wealth in your favor because the moneyed class in this country would much rather buy alarm systems and hire private security than invest in improving the well being of the larger community of this country.


    • Peter Korman says:

      You are certainly welcome to migrate to Venezuela, circa 2011, where property rights are whimsical and inflation is eroding most private savings. If you come to my door looking to appropriate that which my family has earned and saved, the greeting will not be pleasant. I share these sentiments with about 72% of the U.S. Electorate.


  3. David Illig says:

    So, given the BLS release I have to ask how did so many economists go wrong in their expectations for significantly higher job growth than appears to be realized in the BLS payroll numbers?


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