Jul 08, 2011 at 7:36 am
I don’t know what you’re up to, but I’m up early prepping for the jobs report that comes out at 8:30 this morning.
It’s good to be talking about jobs again, and not debt. Imagine, just for fun, how the debate would look and feel if you could substitute the words “jobs” and “unemployment” every time a policy maker said “debt” or “deficits.”
The President would be out there every day saying, “Both parties must come together to solve our budget JOBS deficit. All debt UNEMPLOYMENT reduction ideas must be on the table!”
Anyway…not much point in getting into numbers that are due out in an hour…we at CBPP will have a lot to say when the report is out.
But a few things to keep in mind. The big question is how anomalous was the weak May report. One month does not a trend make but two months begins to do so. Most of us expect June to be better—the consensus is for about 120K on payrolls and for the unemployment rate to maybe come down a tenth, to 9%.
That’s based largely on nothing much deeper than May being worse than expected (so you figure you get a bounce back in June) and some letting up of headwinds from Japan supply disruptions, oil prices, and Euro debt.
But even if we get a decent pop above expectations—say 150K on payrolls—that’s still an average monthly rate of 145K for the quarter (2011Q2, ignoring revisions to April and May, which will also be out this AM).
So still more of a slog than a boom, but what’s most important is a solid improvement over May’s weak report. Stay tuned!
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