Comments on: Miles Driven Revisted: Score One For Cyclical

By: Gary Haubold

Gary Haubold — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 13:28:58 +0000

Hi, great chart.

One observation: it looks to me as if the model became biased high in late 2010 or at least early 2011.

Have you updated the model forecast on the out-of-sample miles driven since August 19, 2011? Just wondering if the model is still biased high, or if the bias has gotten higher, which is what I’d expect.

I’m not sure, but I’m thinking that there’s a demographic effect that’s impacting miles driven along with labor participation rate (which impacts miles driven as well).

By: Jim Horak

Jim Horak — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 19:10:27 +0000

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By: mle detroit

mle detroit — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 13:42:46 +0000

On the other hand, some may be structural:

“I was in our front yard last week when the Google Street View car went by. Apparently they are updating their database with higher resolution photos…

“In some countries objections have been raised based on privacy concerns, but here in Madison elected officials are very supportive, for a surprising but logical reason:

“I’m very glad to hear they’re getting new data,” said Dave Davis, Madison’s geographic information system manager for the engineering department. City staff rely extensively on Street View to show them such things as fire hydrants, traffic signs and sidewalks without having to leave the office, he said, saving trips and time.”

http://tywkiwdbi.blogspot.com/2011/08/google-street-view-database-being.html

By: pollian

pollian — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 10:55:09 +0000

Thanks so much for the quick response. It’s not just the availability of free datasets that has made such a difference to my own intellectual development. It’s the willingness of people like you to share their practices of knowledge.

By: Jared Bernstein

Jared Bernstein — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 03:26:39 +0000

Thanks! I use E-views for econometrics…best times series package on the planet but not cheap. I use FRED too but mostly source data sites: BLS, BEA (NIPA accounts), Census, CBO, Energy Information Agency, Treasury, and a ton of stuff my CBPP colleagues whip up. I think I use FRED mostly for financial data–interest and currency rates, eg.

The extent of data one can get for free these days–as in all those sites just noted–absolutely blows my mind. I can literally build a data set in a half hour that used to take a week at least. With all these crazy budget cutting going on, we risk undercutting our statistical agencies. Which is fine if you don’t want to know about the impact of all of the cuts you’re presiding over…

By: pollian

pollian — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 03:01:39 +0000

You do incredible work…everday. Glad you’re devoting yourself to influencing public discourse.

One question about the incredible work. What programs do you use for your data, graphs, and modeling? Krugman is always talking about Fred (at the St. Louis Fed). What’s your go-to toolset?

By: tom

tom — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 01:03:14 +0000

If you were really able to ‘forget’ what you knew was coming after 2007, and not let it impact your forecast, that is a really, really good model.