Jared,

I recognize a gauntlet thrown at my feet.

Yes, at the peak of one of the longest and most vigorous expansions in this country’s history, real wages for low-skilled workers did trend up. Job creation at 3 million/year did temporarily outpace illegal immigration. But the sad fact is that was about the only time, if memory serves, that there was a break in the downward trend of real wages for the less skilled since about 1970.

But the real test of what is going on is what happens to wages peak-to-peak and trough-trough. So what was the real story peak-to-peak? Since 1970 in this country, how many times have the real wages of less-skilled men gone up peak to peak?

As you yourself have pointed out, something changed about 1970 (when the “Jaws of the Snake” opened up). The tight link between productivity and real wages was broken.

What changed in 1970? One obvious thing was a dramatic reversal of the rate of immigration.

After decades of relatively unrestrained immigration, Congress dramatically tightened up in 1924. Then, from 1930, for the next four decades, immigrants, both as a share of the population and in absolute numbers (more died or left the country then arrived), declined. So even during the weak employment growth of the Eisenhower Administration, living standards could go up and prosperity was spread around.

Since 1970, a vast stream of unregulated, low-skilled immigrants has sought work in this country by working cheaper. Yes, they sure do work hard and I admire them for it, but anyone who works that hard should be well compensated – but the flow of illegals has overwhelmed labor markets and assured that they, and every American worker that they compete against, will not be well compensated.