Tca Yrevocer

July 28th, 2011 at 11:33 pm

Was on the Maddow Show tonight with guest host Melissa Harris-Perry on what might happen if we breach the debt ceiling and the Treasury has to prioritize payments.

Fortunately, Jay Powell and the folks at the Bipartisan Policy Center have done the legwork.  The numbers suggest just what a self-inflicted doomsday scenario this would be.

The Treasury is expected to collect about $170bn in revenues in August against outlays of about $300bn.  So they’d have to prioritize.

Assume we avoid default by shaving $30bn off the top for interest payments.  The BPC lays out a scenario (see chart) where you pay for Soc Sec, Mcare and Mcaid, defense vendors, and UI benefits.  The rest of this list shows who gets stiffed, though of course you could shuffle things around anyway you want.

The point is you can’t get there by not paying out foreign aid for a month.

The other point is that this process would be intensely anti-stimulative.  If we really extracted $130bn a month from the economy–about 10% of GDP (annualized)–it would be an enormous negative shock.  It would amount to the Recovery Act in reverse, times about 4 (hat tip, TM).

A colleague (hat tip, RS) sends this quote along today, from the poet Rumi.  I urge members of Congress to pay heed:

“Sit, be still, and listen, because you’re drunk and we’re at the edge of the roof.”

Just sayin’.

 

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4 comments in reply to "Tca Yrevocer"

  1. D. C. Sessions says:

    The other point is that this process would be intensely anti-stimulative.

    And that’s why the best outcome would be one that hurts immediately. Pro-rate everything but the interest on the debt, and Congress will hold their breath for at most two weeks before a clean debt limit goes to the White House for signature.

    And after that, the public will have a much, much better appreciation for what the Federal government does for the country. Enough of this “they are leaches, I don’t suck on the Government teat” mishegoss.


  2. Dilip says:

    Against the backdrop what you have posted, try reading this:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/obama-geithner-may-regret-threats-of-default-commentary-by-caroline-baum.html

    Enough to drive one nuts (if you aren’t already well on your way).


  3. Joe says:

    What if we only paid out SS, Medicare, and Medicaid to Democratic districts?


  4. Michael says:

    Why would we pay military vendors before soldiers? There’s a pretty brutal assumption hidden in there, and it’s that the fundamental purpose of government is to support the MIC


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