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	<title>Comments on: Today&#8217;s Papers: Gas Prices and Simpson/Bowles II</title>
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	<link>http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/todays-papers-gas-prices-and-simpsonbowles-ii/</link>
	<description>Facts, Thoughts, and Commentary</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 04:31:49 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: readerOfTeaLeaves</title>
		<link>http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/todays-papers-gas-prices-and-simpsonbowles-ii/#comment-531016</link>
		<dc:creator>readerOfTeaLeaves</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 10:57:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/?p=7963#comment-531016</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I try to follow the main topics of economic discussion in the US, but the reality that I see increasingly diverges from the political conversation.  I see a lot of discussion -- including Simpson-Bowles, along with Ms. Yellin&#039;s speech -- that strikes me as rooted in industrial-era, hierarchical, pre-1980s, pre-microprocessor, pre-robotics,  concepts of an economy. 

This was really driven home during a dinner conversation in the past week with people who work at &#039;global&#039; companies that do a lot of metrics, rely heavily on logistics, and have to adapt to new business conditions in real-time.  

It&#039;s almost as if the conversation out of DC is from some other universe; and the idea that Congress can twiddle its thumbs on this sequester, or on that showdown... well, who has the time or patience for that silliness anymore?  

The economics arguments that make the most sense to me are those of Nick Haneaur and Eric Liu (&quot;The Gardens of Democracy&quot;), and it appears that Hanaeur&#039;s involvement with Amazon.com lends credence and insight to his arguments that an economy is a complex, adaptive system -- and that we need to pay far more attention to networks, and to feedback loops.

Microprocessors lie at the heart of this  economic activity.  Yet D.C blathers on about The Federal Debt, as if that&#039;s the biggest economic problem that we face: it&#039;s not.  Not by a factor of about 30,000,000,000.

Meanwhile, over in the UK, in what I view as one of the most brilliant interviews that I have ever read, former Bank of England governor David Potter offered an important statistic:

&lt;blockquote&gt;
Over the last twenty years, one hundred million Chinese may have been added to world manufacturing as low-cost labour (The Economist, 29 July 2010). In the same period, &lt;strong&gt;some thirty billion microprocessors have been added to automate much of what we do, and many have automated the processes and machines that make the bulk of manufactured goods across most industries.&lt;/strong&gt; It is the productivity gains from the automation of manufacturing that has delivered such a plenitude of goods at such low cost.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/david-potter/lets-welcome-enmity-of-bankers

Since the time that Alan Simpson first arrived in DC around 1980, over  30,000,000,000 microprocessors began to drive the global economy.  I think it&#039;s reasonable to say that the &#039;owners&#039; got most of the economic gains of the productivity that resulted.

I don&#039;t see DC, nor the Fed, articulating the implications of 30 billion microprocessors driving the global economy.  

Given the speed of change, I&#039;m increasingly skeptical that policy processes can keep up with underlying, structural shifts in commerce and industrial production.  Perhaps Simson-Bowles is Exhibit 101 in how far the real economy is beginning to separate and diverge from the policy processes of D.C.   Very discouraging.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I try to follow the main topics of economic discussion in the US, but the reality that I see increasingly diverges from the political conversation.  I see a lot of discussion &#8212; including Simpson-Bowles, along with Ms. Yellin&#8217;s speech &#8212; that strikes me as rooted in industrial-era, hierarchical, pre-1980s, pre-microprocessor, pre-robotics,  concepts of an economy. </p>
<p>This was really driven home during a dinner conversation in the past week with people who work at &#8216;global&#8217; companies that do a lot of metrics, rely heavily on logistics, and have to adapt to new business conditions in real-time.  </p>
<p>It&#8217;s almost as if the conversation out of DC is from some other universe; and the idea that Congress can twiddle its thumbs on this sequester, or on that showdown&#8230; well, who has the time or patience for that silliness anymore?  </p>
<p>The economics arguments that make the most sense to me are those of Nick Haneaur and Eric Liu (&#8220;The Gardens of Democracy&#8221;), and it appears that Hanaeur&#8217;s involvement with Amazon.com lends credence and insight to his arguments that an economy is a complex, adaptive system &#8212; and that we need to pay far more attention to networks, and to feedback loops.</p>
<p>Microprocessors lie at the heart of this  economic activity.  Yet D.C blathers on about The Federal Debt, as if that&#8217;s the biggest economic problem that we face: it&#8217;s not.  Not by a factor of about 30,000,000,000.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, over in the UK, in what I view as one of the most brilliant interviews that I have ever read, former Bank of England governor David Potter offered an important statistic:</p>
<blockquote><p>
Over the last twenty years, one hundred million Chinese may have been added to world manufacturing as low-cost labour (The Economist, 29 July 2010). In the same period, <strong>some thirty billion microprocessors have been added to automate much of what we do, and many have automated the processes and machines that make the bulk of manufactured goods across most industries.</strong> It is the productivity gains from the automation of manufacturing that has delivered such a plenitude of goods at such low cost.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/david-potter/lets-welcome-enmity-of-bankers" rel="nofollow">http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/david-potter/lets-welcome-enmity-of-bankers</a></p>
<p>Since the time that Alan Simpson first arrived in DC around 1980, over  30,000,000,000 microprocessors began to drive the global economy.  I think it&#8217;s reasonable to say that the &#8216;owners&#8217; got most of the economic gains of the productivity that resulted.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t see DC, nor the Fed, articulating the implications of 30 billion microprocessors driving the global economy.  </p>
<p>Given the speed of change, I&#8217;m increasingly skeptical that policy processes can keep up with underlying, structural shifts in commerce and industrial production.  Perhaps Simson-Bowles is Exhibit 101 in how far the real economy is beginning to separate and diverge from the policy processes of D.C.   Very discouraging.</p>
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		<title>By: Fred Donaldson</title>
		<link>http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/todays-papers-gas-prices-and-simpsonbowles-ii/#comment-530967</link>
		<dc:creator>Fred Donaldson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 10:09:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/?p=7963#comment-530967</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The media seems to be in denial, when Bowles/Simpson is presented as some expert testimony on budgets and deficits. I spent many years preparing company budgets, for up to 38 divisions at one time, and I will swear that cuts are easy to sell to the owners, but they don&#039;t work in the long run. The golden bullet is to create more revenue. That requires leadership, thought and discipline, while pure cuts are often the tool of the dullard.

There are forces behind folks like Simpson, who fear an increase in FICA for employers, who are concerned about a higher ceiling on Soc Sec. contributions, who wish that Medicare money went into profit insurance companies, and who generally oppose any public ownership or direction, even if their proposals make most people miserable.

Is it too much education that makes some of us analyze these stances, looking for good, where it doesn&#039;t exist? You don&#039;t have to be sincere to spout an opinion, nor honest to recommend a program. Many folks are bought and paid for - by money, by fear, by the desire to please the persons &quot;above&quot; them. Every totalitarian regime and every royal court had its jesters, its lackeys, its sad hangers on - all enjoying life while the world crumbled around them.

The WH should regard a campaign to lower Soc Sec benefits and raise the Medicare age as an assault on the public, not as some wise suggestion from the advocates of a new gilded age.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The media seems to be in denial, when Bowles/Simpson is presented as some expert testimony on budgets and deficits. I spent many years preparing company budgets, for up to 38 divisions at one time, and I will swear that cuts are easy to sell to the owners, but they don&#8217;t work in the long run. The golden bullet is to create more revenue. That requires leadership, thought and discipline, while pure cuts are often the tool of the dullard.</p>
<p>There are forces behind folks like Simpson, who fear an increase in FICA for employers, who are concerned about a higher ceiling on Soc Sec. contributions, who wish that Medicare money went into profit insurance companies, and who generally oppose any public ownership or direction, even if their proposals make most people miserable.</p>
<p>Is it too much education that makes some of us analyze these stances, looking for good, where it doesn&#8217;t exist? You don&#8217;t have to be sincere to spout an opinion, nor honest to recommend a program. Many folks are bought and paid for &#8211; by money, by fear, by the desire to please the persons &#8220;above&#8221; them. Every totalitarian regime and every royal court had its jesters, its lackeys, its sad hangers on &#8211; all enjoying life while the world crumbled around them.</p>
<p>The WH should regard a campaign to lower Soc Sec benefits and raise the Medicare age as an assault on the public, not as some wise suggestion from the advocates of a new gilded age.</p>
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		<title>By: DRN0001</title>
		<link>http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/todays-papers-gas-prices-and-simpsonbowles-ii/#comment-530551</link>
		<dc:creator>DRN0001</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 05:44:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/?p=7963#comment-530551</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most significantly, as Steve Benen observes (and Mark Thoma endorses) S-B have been revealed to be BS artists. Despite their purported obsession on deficit reduction, their latest plan includes tax cuts.

. . . Pants on fire.
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/02/20/17031205-to-lower-the-deficit-dont-cut-taxes]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most significantly, as Steve Benen observes (and Mark Thoma endorses) S-B have been revealed to be BS artists. Despite their purported obsession on deficit reduction, their latest plan includes tax cuts.</p>
<p>. . . Pants on fire.<br />
<a href="http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/02/20/17031205-to-lower-the-deficit-dont-cut-taxes" rel="nofollow">http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/02/20/17031205-to-lower-the-deficit-dont-cut-taxes</a></p>
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