First, Trump’s first full budget is out tomorrow and man, what a mess. Just a massive shift in resources from the poor and middle class through vicious spending cuts to the wealthy in tax cuts. And partially “paid for”–those scare quotes are very important–by a bullsh__ growth assumption of 3%. It’s standard issue, Ryan’esque fare,… Read more
Archive for the ‘Economic Growth’ Category
Jump on the productivity merry-go-round!
That’s the new game all the nerds are playing. You just write down all the reasons why people say productivity isn’t growing as fast as it was 15 years ago, and you ask noted productivity expert John Fernald: “Whussup with that?” That’s what Ben and I do in the latest episode of the On the… Read more
Potential growth and phony budgeting
The WSJ has a piece out this AM making an argument that’s become common from economists who think about growth, myself included: there’s no good reason to expect team Trump to achieve their 3 percent GDP growth goal. Many previous pieces have made this case, based on the limits we observe to the two additive… Read more
Reflections on Trump et al’s weirder than weird economics interview
Yes, there was probably a bit more than the usual dose of cray-cray in President Trump’s interview with The Economist yesterday. But I just can’t muster the energy to crack wise about all that, other than to point out than the bit about how China stopped managing their currency the day Trump won is over-the-moon… Read more
Inflation, earnings, and spending: a review of recent trends
I need a serious break from the ugliness of DC health-care politics, so let’s talk about three interesting and related economic questions: inflation, labor demand, and consumer spending. First, why does inflation continue to respond so weakly, if at all, to the tightening job market? The traditional response is “because the Phillips curve (the relationship… Read more