OK, it’s official: my mind is blown by two new, smart, common sense, progressive initiatives that the Obama administration–with great input from Treasury and the Labor Dept.–has managed to implement this week. Each deserves, and will get, individual attention and explanation from me. But for now, let us marvel at what’s happened here, especially as… Read more
Archive for the ‘Financial Markets’ Category
Not to be negative, but…a critical comment on negative interest rates.
With most economic variables, I think we make too big a deal about crossing zero on the number line. I don’t feel great if real GDP’s growing at 0.2% and horrified if it’s at -0.2%. Deflation with price growth at -0.5% isn’t terribly worse than disinflation with price growth at +0.5%. But with nominal interest… Read more
How can the stock market tank this much are not cause a recession?
Well, there’s the stock market and there’s the real economy. They’re related but they’re not the same thing. Here’s why. To be clear, nobody knows when the next recession will hit, so I’m decidedly not saying all clear, happy-dappy! To the contrary, I strongly urge us to be ready for the worst.
Really, how much do presidents influence the economy?
A commenter, after gazing at these figures, asks: how much influence do presidents really have over the economy anyway? I dove deeply into this here, riffing off of an academic paper comparing economic outcomes between terms when D’s or R’s controlled the White House. The economy grows faster under Democrats, which is good to know,… Read more
I don’t know when the next recession will happen.
But I do strongly suspect that policy makers–both the monetary and fiscal ones–won’t be ready for it. Over at WaPo.