Archive for the ‘Full Employment’ Category

Wage (and price) update

May 11th, 2016

Though last Friday’s jobs report came in a bit under expectations, many analysts, myself included, noted that (nominal) wage growth has picked up in recent months. That is both expected and precisely as it should be. As the job market tightens, employers should have to bid wage offers up more to get and keep the… Read more

Five simple formulas that capture today’s economic challenges and solutions.

March 21st, 2016

Contemporary economics is often criticized for being too mathematical. How can we really capture the complex dynamics of what’s happening in people’s economic lives with a bunch of formulas? In fact, the point of all the math is to distill people’s complex experiences down to something we can model, understand, measure, and maybe predict. Yes,… Read more

How states can stop wasting their taxpayers’ money

February 8th, 2016

[This post was written jointly with Ben Spielberg] Most state governors want to bring more businesses and employment to their states and maintain sustainable budgets. An important new paper from two of our colleagues, Michael Mazerov and Mike Leachman (M&L), provides a new and important insight in this regard: incentives in the form of tax… Read more

Jobs Day: Slower payroll growth but faster wage growth as we get closer to full employment

February 5th, 2016

Job growth slowed in January, as the nation’s employers added 151,000 net new jobs, compared to over 250,000 in each of the prior three months. However, while slower job growth may be a function of recent market volatility and slower growth abroad, it is far too soon to draw any such conclusions from one month’s… Read more

The FEPM (full employment productivity multiplier)

February 4th, 2016

Over at the WaPo, I speak to the existence of an FEPM. Hard to prove–I think you’d probably need to track individual firms over time–but I’ll bet it’s operative. I’ll note without comment that according to a BLS release this AM, productivity fell 3% in the first quarter. Now, that didn’t happen–noisy quarterly data. But… Read more