The labor market kept ticking in July, but the re-surging pandemic led to slower hiring across most industries. Payrolls rose 1.8 million last month, compared to average monthly gains of 3.8 million in May and June, and payrolls remain 12.9 million jobs down from their February peak (see figure). The jobless rate ticked down to… Read more

Payrolls popped up by 4.8 million in June, as commerce continued to gradually reopen across the country. Most industries (75 percent) added jobs, and millions of furloughed workers were called back, taking the unemployment down to 11.1 percent from 13.3 percent in May. The strong report begs the question: are we out of the virus-infected… Read more

There’s new information out this morning that should be a critical input into ongoing negotiations in the U.S. Senate. Senators are debating whether the economy needs another relief package, and, if so, what should be in it, and this morning’s income report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is virtually yelling what the answer should… Read more

Janelle Jones and I have a new piece coming out wherein we explain why and how the Federal Reserve should target the Black unemployment rate in setting monetary policy. The first figure to which we refer is the share of quarters since 1972 (when the Black jobless rate data start) that the unemployment rate for… Read more

Before even getting to the facts of the case on today’s very surprising jobs report, let me share a few insights. –One jobs report does not a new trend make. –Keynes was right. –Economists are terrible at catching turning points. –Don’t ignore levels for trends. In one of the more surprising jobs reports I’ve seen,… Read more