Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

Recession Readiness and State UI Trust Funds

August 22nd, 2019

[My colleague Kathleen Bryant took the lead on this piece–JB] Given the recent dramatic spike in media coverage of our economic headwinds and recession readiness over the past week, we decided to take a closer look at the balance sheets of state unemployment insurance (UI) trust funds. While the Department of Labor (DOL) is responsible… Read more

A quick note on China’s devaluation

August 5th, 2019

Just back from ranting about this on CNBC so I’ll quickly share some thoughts on the news that the Chinese yuan broke 7/$, in a depreciation that threatens trade-war escalation. Bottom line: the trade war may be about to get worse, and that won’t be good for markets, consumers, and the global economy. It’s hard… Read more

Still a solid job market, but with a cloud or two

August 2nd, 2019

Payrolls rose 164,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. Wage growth accelerated very slightly–3.1% in June to 3.2% in July (year-over-year nominal hourly pay)–but it has been roughly stalled just north of 3 so far this year. Downward revisions for the prior two months–May and June–appear to have slowed the… Read more

Sharing the wealth, or at least the compensation

July 30th, 2019

Twitter econ asked for my historical ECI series, so here you go. See tab “finaltbl.” For columns B and C–pvt industry–I do a small splice re older data which you can track through the spreadsheet. For cols D & E–these are “all civilian” and are the series we use for our wage mashup–I don’t bother… Read more