Archive for the ‘New Posts’ Category

Why a Fed rate cut makes sense

July 9th, 2019

[written with Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics] This is a post about one-quarter of one percent. That’s the amount by which the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce the federal funds rate, the key interest rate they control, when they meet at the end of this month. If that sounds like too small… Read more

More evidence–this time from CBO–that higher (even much higher) minimum wages largely do what they’re supposed to do.

July 8th, 2019

Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2025 would lift the pay of 27.3 million workers—17 percent of the workforce—according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office. It would raise the incomes of poor families by 5 percent and thus reduce the number of people in poverty by 1.3 million…. Read more

July jobs: nice pop on payrolls but flat wage growth

July 5th, 2019

[This jobs report is an important one in terms of assessing the impact of headwinds on the job market, but because it’s sort of a holiday, I’ll just offer up a truncated, bullet-point report. As always, thanks to Kathleen Bryant, who got up early on vacation to help me out!] Toplines: –Payrolls rose 224,000 last… Read more

The economic outlook: The importance of getting ready for the next downturn sooner than later.

June 28th, 2019

Yesterday, some colleagues and I gave a talk on the urgency of being ready for the next downturn before it hits. Here’s the PowerPt (as a PDF) and below is an annotated version. To be clear from the outset, you will not learn from this presentation when the next recession will be upon us because… Read more