So Ylan Mui warns that a recession is out there somewhere, and we’re getting closer to it every day. That is, by definition, true. And while she garners some data to make the case, one can find data on both sides of the issue. Generally speaking, economists cannot predict recessions. Back in the mid-2000s, Dean… Read more
Archive for the ‘Recession/Stimulus’ Category
Lessons from the last downturn for the next one.
Courtesy of economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, here is the latest paper from our full employment project at CBPP. B&Z take the most thorough look at the full spate of interventions -fiscal, monetary, financial-we threw at the Great Recession. Here’s my summary over at WaPo and here’s some of their intro: The massive and… Read more
Actual GDP, meet Potential GDP
I recently posted a “letter to the Fed” wherein I questioned the rationale for raising interest rates given a variety of economic developments that I argued offer no compelling reasons to tap the brakes on growth. Here’s a point I made in that post, regarding GDP growth: “the current economy is like a slow runner… Read more
Check it out, OTE’ers: The Reconnection Agenda is upon us!
Read the intro to my new book, The Reconnection Agenda: Reuniting Growth and Prosperity, over at the WaPo PostEverything. Or better yet, download the whole damn book at let me know what you think. You can buy a hard copy–you know, with paper pages, here. [Here’s the cover, which I think is great, by Anthony… Read more
Robert Samuelson on full employment; my own concerns as to our readiness for the next downturn
Robert Samuelson has a few good words for full employment, coming off of our event a few weeks ago. He makes some useful points: –not only is full employment an important goal, but it’s a bipartisan one, or at least it should be; –no one really knows with any precision what the “natural rate” of… Read more