Heads Up: It’s Jobs Tomorrow…again

July 31st, 2014 at 5:25 pm

Here’s the expectations table from Bloomberg:



Source: Bloomberg

Jobs-watcher extraordinaire Heidi Shierholz asks this of tomorrow’s report:

…have we really kicked it into higher gear? A jobs number north of 270,000 would be a pretty clear sign that the answer is yes—but anything much less than that would push us back to “we have to wait and see” territory.

Her 270K is about the trend over the past three months, and while it’s a noisy indicator, GDP appears to have accelerated smartly in Q2 as well, based in part on faster consumer spending and investment, which may well have generated more jobs in July.

So, while I’ve not had time to run my model (not that it helps much), I’d look for a number on the upside of the consensus printed above (233K).

Look for “first impressions” shortly after the 8:30 release.

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