First, Trump’s first full budget is out tomorrow and man, what a mess. Just a massive shift in resources from the poor and middle class through vicious spending cuts to the wealthy in tax cuts. And partially “paid for”–those scare quotes are very important–by a bullsh__ growth assumption of 3%. It’s standard issue, Ryan’esque fare, but goes after not just discreationary–there’s just not that much left there they can plausibly cut–but also mandatory programs, including Medicaid (on top of AHCA cuts), food stamps, EITC, CTC, more…

Second, it took too long, but these interesting figures suggest the stock market may have woken up to the fact that the market-friendly Trump agenda won’t exactly be forthcoming. To be clear, I still think a big, wasteful, regressive tax cut is coming, but probably not as big and not as soon as market participants imagine, even still.