“I’ll have the wage mash-up with a side of low inflation”

February 4th, 2016 at 3:27 pm

So, with the productivity data out this AM–such as it was–I’ve now got the five wage and compensation series I need for the latest version of our patented wage mash-up (details here). I added a trend this month so you could see the bit of acceleration at the end of the series. That’s good to see as it suggests the tightening job market is likely delivering a bit of bargaining power to workers who’ve seen way too little of that for way too long (some parts of the country are clearly already at full employment).

Inflation’s very low so even these modest 2%’ish gains translate into faster real wage growth. And from the Fed’s perspective, that’s the key point.

In case they’re busy, I’ve taken the liberty [street] to make my friends over there a handy checklist:

Tighter job market, check;
Slight nominal wage acceleration, check;
Inflationary pressures, NOT CHECK!

Feet off of brakes, double-check!

Source: BLS, my calculations

Source: BLS, my calculations

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One comment in reply to "“I’ll have the wage mash-up with a side of low inflation”"

  1. Jurassic Carl says:

    I think there are so many people not counted in the employment figures that it may take a while to re-absorb them in the labor market and/or ratchet up wages.

    Mr. Bernstein, do you still believe in Reverse Hysteresis?