It’s nerdy, but we’ve got to consider forecast errors in budget policy.

February 15th, 2016 at 12:51 pm

Over at WaPo. I wish every such budget forecast contained error bands like this. We can’t be reminded enough about the uncertainty inherent in such predictions.

All of this also reminded me of the importance of that Jordan Ellenberg book I reviewed here, “How not to be wrong.”

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One comment in reply to "It’s nerdy, but we’ve got to consider forecast errors in budget policy."

  1. Chris G says:

    So would the FOMC forecasts look any better if they’d put error bars on them 😉
    Ref = http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/fed-scratches-their-seven-year-itch-raise-quarter-point-as-expected/

    PS For what it’s worth and in all seriousness, I’m a big fan of error bars.


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