Jobs Day on Friday!

July 3rd, 2013 at 3:19 pm

Why, why must I continue to try to forecast the Friday jobs number??

Oh, that’s right…perhaps it’s because last month I just about nailed it, coming in at 178k total and 180k private, compared to the actuals of 175k and 178k, respectively.

Let’s not discuss the fact that these excellent guesses will likely turn into no so excellent guesses with the May revisions tomorrow, or all those other months when I blew it.

At any rate, here’s the Bloomberg consensus for June’s employment and earnings:

bb_consen_7_3

My model is coming in above the consensus but I don’t think it’s picking up the fiscal drag that is one of the reasons GDP is bearly slogging along at trend.  So after adjusting it down a bit, I’m at 180K total and 185K private.

Why do we do it?  We do it because, like the scorpion said to the frog as they were both dying, “It’s our nature.”

As always, GL’s famous haiku:

Jobs day on Friday
Quick, tell me! What’s your forecast?
Scorpion and frog.

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