Jobs day tomorrow!

February 5th, 2015 at 3:14 pm

IKR! So exciting!

My forecast is 210K for payrolls, which is below the BBerg consensus (below) of 230K. I expect monthly wage growth to tick back up as per the consensus–last month’s decline will be revised, so that will be worth checking, but as usual, I’ll take yr/yr changes to smooth out some noise.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m off on the downside (i.e., if we get a stronger-than-expected pop on payrolls). Though growth slowed in the last quarter of last year, price declines at the pump have likely pumped up real consumer spending–even flat nominal wage trends go further with topline consumer inflation at less than 1% when last seen (yr/yr: 0.8%).

bberg_2_5_15

Source: Bloomberg

I’ll have first impressions, along with my patented jobs day smoother, up shortly after the release. Then, barring a last minute cancellation, some chin music over at MSNBC on the jobs numbers with Jose Diaz-Balart at 10:15’ish.

 

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