Jobs day tomorrow

July 7th, 2016 at 5:26 pm

I know I always say this but coming off of last month’s extremely weak report, this is an important one. The key word is “bounceback.” Consensus expectations are for 180,000 on payrolls and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.8%. My model says 150K, fwiw, which ain’t much (not being self-deprecating; that holds for everybody else’s model too).

I’ll be a bit late with my write-up because I’m supposed to be on CNBC when the numbers come out, so if you’re dying to hear my live reaction (which will likely range between “that’s about what I expected” or “that’s a surprise!”), tune on in.

One interesting question. If it’s a weak or middling report, the Fed remains on cautious hold, I’d say. But what if it’s surprisingly strong? Same thing, probably–just too much conflicting incoming information, Brexit uncertainty, strengthening dollar, and relatively weak price pressures to think too hard about raising. But a strong jobs report would complicate that picture a bit.

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