The excitement just doesn’t let up around here.
Another jobs day, another set of forecasts, results, revisions, and excessive analysis of an indicator whose signal-to-noise ratio, while it exists, is lower than we give it credit for.
Here’s the Bloomberg expectations for July’s job market:
My own forecast is for 185k on total payrolls and 190k on private payrolls. I’ve been above consensus in recent months and the consensus has turned out to be a bit low, so we’ll see.
I’ll have first impressions up shortly after the release, about 12 hours from now, assuming the flash traders don’t jam the pipes!