Jobs Day Tomorrow

January 9th, 2014 at 12:35 pm

Here’s the Bloomberg consensus table:

bbergext12_13

My model spits out 215K on payrolls for both private and total.  The unemployment rate will either go up, stay put, or go down…I think.

I always want a strong jobs report and tomorrow is no exception.  But this is obviously a sensitive moment for the UI extension debate.  It’s an unfortunate habit, but policy makers tend to way over-estimate the significance of the monthly numbers at times like this, given their volatility and revisions.  That being said, a strong report could take some wind out of the sails of those of us pulling for the extension, even though unemployment, underemployment, and most importantly long-term joblessness will remain highly elevated.

We definitely want an improving job market, but let’s not conflate “improving” with “all-better.”

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