Here’s the Bloomberg consensus table:
My model spits out 215K on payrolls for both private and total. The unemployment rate will either go up, stay put, or go down…I think.
I always want a strong jobs report and tomorrow is no exception. But this is obviously a sensitive moment for the UI extension debate. It’s an unfortunate habit, but policy makers tend to way over-estimate the significance of the monthly numbers at times like this, given their volatility and revisions. That being said, a strong report could take some wind out of the sails of those of us pulling for the extension, even though unemployment, underemployment, and most importantly long-term joblessness will remain highly elevated.
We definitely want an improving job market, but let’s not conflate “improving” with “all-better.”